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The rally continues because earnings continue to deliver. Consensus expects the topline to see some slowing, but better margins will make up for that. Can we continue to deliver that topline into 2024? Her concern is that the rest of the world (ex-USA) is rapidly contracting. The market expected China's reopening to drive demand for cyclicals like energy and materials, but have lagged this year--Chinese demand wasn't there.

Parts of healthcare are doing very well: equipment, disposables, more surgical procedures, managed care. Does this translate into stronger earnings and growth even during an economic contraction?

The trough in earnings for energy isn't there yet. There has to be better earnings to entice more investment in energy. Also, China wants to offer more stimulus in green energy.

Keep you cash at 5-10%. It looks like the soft landing is intact. In fact, a no-landing is a risk; the Fed will crush that. The S&P is up 20% YTD and that's a little frothy. It will probably continue until September, a notoriously tricky month.

Outside tech, there is now catch-up in other sectors. Look at the price action in Deere and how they recovered from their post-earnings debacle.

They just reported a return to profitability. He held this for 10 years, a great stock until management and other factors changed. Yes, Intel beat, but it ain't cheap. You have a long wait in this at best, though you won't lose money in it. He prefers Micron, NXP and others.

They reported a mixed quarter. Refining is not doing so well. Low natural gas prices haven't helped. Oil is up to $80 now from $60, so profits should rise. China should see growth (he doubts a return to lockdowns). If a recession keeps getting delayed or doesn't happen, then energy prices should stay high and that will be fine for Exxon. Trades at 11x PE and pays a 3.5% dividend.

He missed this and won't chase it now. It's had wild ups and downs in its history.

He wouldn't sell a share. Operations and results vs. two years are much much higher. Earnings estimates for 2023 are 30% higher than when the year started. Trades at 6x forward.

The Fed is almost done. We've had 13 years of near-zero rates, and suddenly we have higher rates, higher for longer. Regional bank weakness now seems contained. Strong employment means a soft landing continues to be possible.

She bought more Nvidia. She loves earning season. What she learned from conference calls from Microsoft, Meta et al is that they're building a ton in AI capex. She doesn't know which companies will monetize at this point, except Nvidia. All roads lead to Nvidia. She's confident that they will report a backlog next month and will raise guidance.

Does Tim Cook ever disappoint at earnings? The company rarely does. She expects another consistent quarter.

We're already seeing a catch-up trade in energy. As the Saudis cut oil production so do these companies who are managing capex well. There's a little but of M&A. Free cash flow yield is around 12% (the best sector on the S&P) for the industry even while earnings are down from last year. This is a great time to dollar-cost average on oil companies. China will stimulate its economy out of necessity (youth unemployment is too high there).

She's been impressed with how the CEO has transformed the company so much that it could be included in the S&P later this year, given positive profitability. She also finds Lyft interesting under a new CEO, more interesting that Uber. She's watching Lyft more than Uber.

She also finds Lyft interesting under a new CEO, more interesting that Uber. She's watching Lyft more than Uber.