PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 06/22, Down 43%) Sticking with it. Timing was bad. Over-invested during pandemic. Post-pandemic, people returned to normal habits. Expanded cost base not filled with revenue, so margins dropped dramatically. This is temporary. Serial compounder. AWS has potential to grow at 25%+ annually. Tremendous buy here.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 06/22, Up 4%) Makes money off premiums and investments. Interest rates will help income. Has pricing power and this, counterintuitively, is fed by increased number of natural disasters.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 06/22, Up 13%) Defense spending is a bit in flux with the Republican House. But the world is more roiled. Ukraine, Taiwan, China. Patriot missile for Ukraine. Commercial aerospace side will expand as airlines get more footing. Well positioned.
DON'T BUY
Nat gas. His choice would be the Canadian market. He owns TOU, advantageous for Canadian investors and better valuation.
BUY
Advantageous for Canadian investors. TOU has paid special dividends, which provide a running yield of close to 10%. Decent valuation.
BUY
Still bullish. Has grown out of being just a pharmacy to being an integrated healthcare provider. Great long-term plan. CEO excellent. Promise still ahead. Not expensive, good growth, great financials. He'd be a buyer.
SELL
He used to own, but moved on because Humira coming off patent this year. Lower growth trajectory. Looks great on paper, but you have to get into the weeds to see where it might go, not where it's been.
DON'T BUY
High multiple. Management issues, can't seem to find the right successor. Exposed to China, a wild card. An opportunity, but also a risk. 15B of debt, negative net worth, debt's being used to pay dividend and buy back shares.
DON'T BUY
Growth companies have traded off. Highly tied to housing and renovations, needs a healthy consumer. Likes the space, prefers LOW. LOW catching up to profitability and efficiency of HD.
BUY
Growth companies have traded off. Highly tied to housing and renovations, needs a healthy consumer. Likes the space. LOW catching up to profitability and efficiency of HD, operating margins have gone up 60% in last 8-10 years, stole HD playbook. Better opportunity, less risk, growth is as good as HD.
BUY
Tied to economy. If we go into a deep recession, copper prices are bound to fall, so FCX will fall. However, modest recession or none at all, and China reopens, lots of promise for copper. Secular tailwinds for copper: electrification, green energy, tight supply right now. Fantastic financial shape. Very positive. Even if a recession, that will pass, and there will be a new spring for copper.
DON'T BUY
Fallen dramatically. 10x revenue, no profitability in sight. For example, GOOG is at 4x revenue. Is it a great company? Yes, growing well, cybersecurity is front and centre. But is it a great stock? Too much future growth is priced in to the stock, still expensive.
TOP PICK
Granddaddy of biotech. Even better than it used to be. Very deep bench of drugs. New acquisition will add growth on top of already-decent growth. Very strong financials. Income opportunity, stability, and some growth not yet fully priced in. Yield is 3.14%, well covered at 42%, increased by 11% average annually over 5 years. (Analysts’ price target is $268.80)
TOP PICK
Crop prices have been strong and will continue. A lot of US corn and soy production goes to petro products. Growing food issues. Mid-teen valuation. Adding lots of technology, precision farming. Also has forestry and construction, which will do well with the infrastructure build. Yield is 1.11%. (Analysts’ price target is $460.44)
TOP PICK
High beta name. 10x earnings. 10% free cashflow yield. Chance to take advantage of infrastructure spend in the US. Regardless of recession status, money to be spent on infrastructure and there's safety in that. Recent acquisition will be accretive from the get-go. Good long-term hold. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $410.18)