We're stuck now. It will be three weeks before we see June's inflation data and when earnings start. Earnings estimates have been going up this year, and are the big question going forward. That answer will come with earnings reports starting in three weeks. However, personal and corporate balance sheets are still in good shape. Companies are buying back shares. These balance sheets are a positive in a pessmistic environment and cannot be overlooked.
He owns Qualcomm and NXP--great valuations. He expects the economic cycle to be very long. There is a wave of factory/mine/construction and building happening in the US and around the world, which which will feed demand for semis.
He owns Qualcomm and NXP--great valuations. He expects the economic cycle to be very long. There is a wave of factory/mine/construction and building happening in the US and around the world, which which will feed demand for semis.
He's waiting for the world to change. He sold some S&P futures on the morning of the last inflation report and hasn't made any moves yet. There's no clarity in inflation, rates or tariffs. There is overwhelming pessimism in the market which gives rise to a trading opportunity, which is a bit of optimism. Also, lumber, copper and wheat are down over 20% or more since the winter. Even gasoline and crude oil are down (the latter 12% from the recent peak).
He's holding a little longer. Sometimes you make lousy trades; he admits it. There's been awful news with this as shares keep falling. At some point, he will sell and cut his losses.
Some investors feel that semis in the next two years are not going anywhere, so they avoid them. Others are bullish. If so, own AMD or Nvidia. He owns AMD for the valuation, $10 million share buyback and excellent management. He is bullish in semis, that will be tied to the overall economy's recovery.