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Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
BUY
BUY
April 30, 2021
Has always been an aggregator of plays and then sells them. Just sold their anchor property. Currently developing their Oak property to sell in the future. They have good liquids exposure. Trades at a modest premium with 3.6x enterprise value to cashflow next year at $60 oil. A very unique story. Buying for the potential value of their future plays. Good candidate for the ESG movement.
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Has always been an aggregator of plays and then sells them. Just sold their anchor property. Currently developing their Oak property to sell in the future. They have good liquids exposure. Trades at a modest premium with 3.6x enterprise value to cashflow next year at $60 oil. A very unique story. Buying for the potential value of their future plays. Good candidate for the ESG movement.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 30, 2021
There are aspects that will detract institutional ownership. There are some promotional aspects. The name is cheap and are paying down debt. It is not a name he is looking at. The quantitative and qualitative aspects need to match and for him it does not meet his requirements.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere are aspects that will detract institutional ownership. There are some promotional aspects. The name is cheap and are paying down debt. It is not a name he is looking at. The quantitative and qualitative aspects need to match and for him it does not meet his requirements.
BUY
BUY
April 30, 2021
Established a 6% weight at $1.28. The hope is their appraisal results from the Clearwater play is positive. Potential $440M potential de-risk value that is worth half the market cap. Most people are not aware they are pursuing this. An inefficient market where you can make profit. Trading at 3.5x next year enterprise to cash flow at $60 oil. Target multiple is 6x. At $70 oil, you can look forward to $3.60.
Established a 6% weight at $1.28. The hope is their appraisal results from the Clearwater play is positive. Potential $440M potential de-risk value that is worth half the market cap. Most people are not aware they are pursuing this. An inefficient market where you can make profit. Trading at 3.5x next year enterprise to cash flow at $60 oil. Target multiple is 6x. At $70 oil, you can look forward to $3.60.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
April 30, 2021
Smallest weight in his fund. The stock imploded on bad exploration drilling. Primarily natural gas and some oil. Fixed price on gas so it is a volume story. Bought it at 2x future cashflow so it was a great opportunity. Thinly traded.
Show full opinionHide full opinionSmallest weight in his fund. The stock imploded on bad exploration drilling. Primarily natural gas and some oil. Fixed price on gas so it is a volume story. Bought it at 2x future cashflow so it was a great opportunity. Thinly traded.
BUY
BUY
April 30, 2021
Has been picking away at it around $2.05. Volume has dried out. A name that will bring online 12 wells with good expectations. The name could trade at 3x next year's cashflow. With incremental production, it is trading at 1.9 2 year out cashflow. Super inexpensive. Would buy this over Arc Resources.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHas been picking away at it around $2.05. Volume has dried out. A name that will bring online 12 wells with good expectations. The name could trade at 3x next year's cashflow. With incremental production, it is trading at 1.9 2 year out cashflow. Super inexpensive. Would buy this over Arc Resources.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 30, 2021
More bullish on oil than natural gas due to cap ex not growing. This winter was disappointing and gas is at a modest deficit in the US. Oil could head to $100 oil. More excited for the oil thesis.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMore bullish on oil than natural gas due to cap ex not growing. This winter was disappointing and gas is at a modest deficit in the US. Oil could head to $100 oil. More excited for the oil thesis.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 30, 2021
(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 137%) A core holding for him. Must own if you are bullish on oil. Using all free cashflow to de-lever. 2.6x debt to cashflow next year at $60 oil. Spending some money to scale production to reach critical mass. Trading at under 5x cashflow with 33% free cashflow yield. Once debt is paid down, they can start increasing dividend and buybacks. At $60 oil, target is $10.80, $70 oil would be $18.64.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick May 15/20, Up 137%) A core holding for him. Must own if you are bullish on oil. Using all free cashflow to de-lever. 2.6x debt to cashflow next year at $60 oil. Spending some money to scale production to reach critical mass. Trading at under 5x cashflow with 33% free cashflow yield. Once debt is paid down, they can start increasing dividend and buybacks. At $60 oil, target is $10.80, $70 oil would be $18.64.
