COMMENT

The company has been frustrating because it pays a good dividend but it has had a slow decline in stock price. Management at the right is similarly concerned about the stock price and is adjusting its portfolio--getting out of US retail and into US multifamily. In Canada it is a very high-quality commercial real estate operator with high-quality tenants. Their vacancy rates are very low, the dividend is seen as safe and the stock has been treated by investors as a bond substitute. She expects the portfolio adjustments to lead to an increase in the stock price. Yield 6.8%.

DON'T BUY

This is owned 60% by TransAlta and managed by TransAlta. RNW doesn’t have employees, it pays a management fee to TransAlta instead. The price has gone down over the past year, but so have most utilities, as interest rates have increased. The yield looks safe but there is no clear path for growth. Cash flow projections are flat. They sold 12 million shares in June, but are using the money to pay down debt rather than investing in significant new projects. She expects the price to stay flat, so one could invest in this stock for the yield alone. Alternatively, one could look for a company like this that has more growth projects underway. Yield 7.8%.

COMMENT

They did a big acquisition of a utility in the US and financed it with an equity issue and a bridging loan. They are making asset sales to repay the bridge loan. Of the 2 billion that they had to sell, they have sold off about 1.5 billion of assets so far. They expect to complete the asset sales by the end of the year. She expects them to be able to sustain the yield. She does not see much near-term growth. However, the company is still a little more leveraged than it would like, and it might offer more hybrid securities or do another equity offering to reduce its debt. She expects the completion of the asset sale process to be a positive on the stock. Yield 8.8%.

COMMENT

She has held Yum Brands for years. When it spun off Yum China, her clients acquired some Yum China shares automatically. Yum China is strictly in China. It pays royalties to Yum Brands for its KFC and Pizza Hut brands. When she invests new money, she invests in Yum Brands, not Yum China. Yum China’s stock dropped significantly today. They have a good presence in China, as a first mover in their space, but the Chinese market is very competitive. The stock price has been volatile because of rumours that the company would be taken over by a Chinese group. With the 12% drop today, this might be a good time to step in to this stock. She had confidence in the consumer in China and this is a company within that space. However, her preference is with the parent, which has exposures to other growing markets such as India and Russia, as well as China. She prefers that diversification and the simplicity of the royalty model.

COMMENT

She holds this for some of her income investors, and she likes the yield. It has a consistent record of increasing dividends. The stock price has pulled back with rising interest rates as have other telecom companies. The dividend is safe, and she expects the business to grow by 4 to 6% per year. Yield 6%.

BUY

This is down year to date and has lagged the group. This was the only one of the large Canadian banks that missed estimates last quarter. The bank did some big acquisitions and offered equity at the $76 level (close to the current price of $75.12) to fund acquisitions. She thinks the price is attractive--the bank is well managed, they’ve put money into the wealth management area, which she expects to be a long-term growth area. She owns some ScotiaBank. It has not been a core holding but she is buying now, viewing the current price as an entry point. Yield 4.5%.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

The company focuses on water transportation, trust, and treatment. Utilities are having to refresh their water-related infrastructure and emerging markets are just building it. This has driven up the price of Xylem. They are also developing metering products, measurements to help utilities minimize water loss in their systems. She would not buy at the current price. She expects a pullback. The company has made presentations at conferences and its price will probably drop back to $72 or $75.

TOP PICK

She thinks synergies from the merger of Potash and Agrium are coming through faster than expected. They had to sell several assets as a condition of the merger, and those sales are now closing, generating about $5 billion in cash. They also expect to generate $6 to 8 billion in free cash flow over the next few years. They are buying back stock and they expect to increase the yield on their dividend. They are also investing in growing out their retail platform, hold about a 19% share of their market in the US and think they can grow it to 30%. They are also planning to expand in Australia and Brazil. They think their retail business is the promising area for future growth, rather than wholesale. In addition, the price of potash seems to be rising from its trough. Yield 2.9%. (Analysts’ price target is $81.48)

TOP PICK

They like the bank at this level. It has only gone up about 1.5% year to date. Earnings have come in better than expected, reporting an increase of 11 or 12% in the last quarter. They’ve raised their dividend. About 25% of their revenues come from the US and growth from services to high net worth individuals is coming through. She expects dividends to increase proportionately to earnings, about 10% this year. Yield 3.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $111.75)

TOP PICK

This is the largest provider of senior communities. The demographics play in their favor. The 75-year-plus population is expected to double in the 20 next years, growing 3 to 4 times faster than the general population. Penetration of the seniors market is still low in Canada, so there is a lot of room for growth. 85% of their homes are private-pay rather than relying on government funding. Yield 4%. (Analysts’ price target is $16.75)

COMMENT

I don't know how this company makes money. Why do people pay to see, say, my pictures online? Disclosure: he's never made money in social media. He's not the best guy to talk about this stock; he doesn't understand this business.

COMMENT

Where to invest in Japan? Traditionally, Japan companies would make money, but wouldn't pay it to investors. Also, a company would appear to be selling, say, electronics, but were really selling chemicals, so investors weren't sure what that company's business really was. Today, dividends at Japanese companies are starting to rise and there's more transparency. If this continues, the Japanese market will outperform for a long time. Also, Japan is seen as a safe haven for investors, meaning it's not a Trump target. He has misgivings about the Japanese economy though, despite there being some good companies, like the rail companies.

COMMENT

You have to be in the US market, but it depends on the currency you're in. US dollars are ideal, though every portfolio should have a mix of currencies including Euros. The US is outperforming though the S&P has not. Similarly, Asian tech has had surprising recent down weeks, including Alibaba's sudden downturn. Any FANG tech stock that misses an earnings report suffers a vicious downturn. Trump's trade fight against China: China is not the underdog and can in fact fight back, like dumping U.S. treasury debt notes that would put severe pressure on the U.S. dollar. China could also prevent American companies from sending capital back to the U.S. that would cause carnage in U.S. markets--and Trump can't afford to have the markets tank. The U.S. picking a fight with three guys--China, Europe, Canada--and this will only lead to an America nosebleed. Meanwhile, dividend payers like telcos are attractive now, so the sell-off these stocks is premature.

BUY

They've restructured. The fast money that's been flowing into the U.S. has been expecting U.S. interest rates to rise, and Europe should follow that. But Europe will likelly lag the U.S. a bit, like six months. Interest rates will be good for financials including Aegon. It's a good company. The Dutch market is a good one. Wait and see. He sees upside.

PAST TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick, Sept. 11, 2017, Up 34%) Many expected rising interest rates would push up US bank earnings, but people are holding record debt. Investors got ahead of the trade, but this is a good long-term story. Regulation rollbacks in banks will be a major tailwind. This is one of his major holdings.