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Market. There has been no shortage of commentary on the G7 summit this morning. Regarding Trump's comments. Things have to get worse before they get better. It is not a good thing. But ultimately it could lead to better trade deals. It seems this is what the market is pricing in. Trump thinks he needs to come out ahead on the trade deals. Attention is now on North Korea. This could play out for years and years. The ECB actions will be more important than those of the Fed. The ECB has purchased $3.5 billion of Italian bonds in the last three years.

Withholding tax if US ETFs held in an RRIF. Yes, there is a withholding tax and there is not a whole lot we can do about it. You need a W8BEN form signed and there might be some tax relief in some cases.

It is denominated in US$. If you look at ZPH-T, which is hedged, it has a 4% return year over year. Currency fluctuations impact ZPW-T. He likes to pair it with ZWH-T, and then you get a yield in the US market that is three times the S&P 500 but with less risk. Currency is actually the most important consideration when you invest internationally. Currency averages 5.4 percentage points' impact on your investment returns internationally.

Canada's debt to GDP ratio. At the federal level it is around 33%. You have to add in the provincial debt. As a whole it is around 95% debt to GDP. The US is over a hundred as is Europe. Japan is far beyond that. When the level of debt is the same size as the output of the world, it is like hitting the breaks on growth. Debt globally is choking and interest rates can't go up much because debt servicing would be astronomical. We are in a 1 to 3 % growth world.

Recession in 2019/20? The yield curve is the best predictor of a recession. It is inverted within a year of the recession. The yield curve in question is the 3 year relative to the 10 year. There is a 10% or less chance of a recession next year. Equity markets peak about 8-9 months before a recession. Longer bonds should make you money as the market prices in recession risk.

Russia. RSX, an ETF, is the main index in Russia. There are other, broader ETFs that include Russia. You may want to look at it if oil under performs.

It is somewhat directly related to steel and tariffs. It has broken out and is making higher highs and higher lows. If it does not break the high of last January then he would be worried.

Educational Segment. Bond Supply and Unwinding Quantitative Easing. Part of the equity market anxiety earlier this year was related to volatility. Inflation pressures are still building. The Fed is unwinding the balance sheet and the ECB may announce they are doing the same thing later this week. There is a VIX for everything. He showed a chart of the VIX on 10 year bonds. It has been declining for a number of years since 2010. He thinks we will see bond volatility spike up again but not to the '08/'09 levels. It will cause anxiety in the equity markets, however. If we see equity markets weaken after 1 pm today then the supply of bonds will be a problem. The ECB is probably not going to put net new supply into the market until 2020 but the question is who is going buy the Italian bonds. He thinks it will be a big problem at some point. The markets are underplaying the risks. Corporate balance sheets everywhere are not in good shape. S&P companies have never been more leveraged compared to revenues before. There is probably going to be stresses in fixed income and equities as well, and at the same time. It is not as simple as going into a balanced fund.

Market. Oil. OPEC has succeeded in bringing oil inventories down and in fact at the fastest rate in history. There is going to be drama and volatility in two sources considering increasing production. Most production growth in North America takes 4 to 6 years. We have seen the biggest contraction in history in the spending on new long term projects. Spending will stagnate until 2023. He feels oil prices will fall until then. Oil inventories are going to reach an all time low in Oct 2020. He feels inventories will fall below what refineries need to function. We need demand to fall and will do that through high oil prices. At today's GDP levels we would need $120 oil to get demand destruction. He seems $80 oil in 2020 months.

A good bread and butter name to own. There has been a bit of a rally so far this year. The reason energy stocks have gone up in Canada is because US investors are coming into our names because they are seeing few names that don’t have takeaway issues. It is a lower risk name. He sees 4 times forward cash flow, where as it used to be 8. Where we are in oil prices, these names are trading at half their historical multiples, even if you don’t think oil is going up. It's a steady Eddie name. He is looking for more growth and so doesn't own this name.

He struggles to get over excited about it. There were balance sheet issues and oil pricing headwinds. This is a tier 2 or 3 name.

This is a bit of a different story because they announced strategic alternatives. It helps when a management team owns so much of the stock. The process should be completed within a month. They will probably find a buyer for one of their assets. He sold this name a month ago. As it sells off it is getting increasingly compelling.

Similar to WCP-T, it is more of a bread and butter drilling story. It is trying to be consistent and manage the balance sheet.

It was a merger that fixed balance sheets. It took off but there was this overhang of too much supply of fracking sand. He threw in the towel on fracking names last year.

(A Top Pick Nov 15/17, Down 32%) The concern was around the level of dry gas spending. He still thinks there is an opportunity for an upward revision later this year. Everyone seems to forget the uplift from the change in currency. This one has been a target of shorts but it unwound last Friday. You will be the recipient of a lot of free cash flow in forms like share buybacks.