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He is neutral on this and is very cautious on energy and has been for the entire year. At this time there has been a real whip in refiners. He has backed away from the space, because they are really whippy. Unlike some stories, such as biotech, you take the stairs up and the elevator down, so you have to be really careful about your entry point. He would prefer something a little more conservative such as Mkt Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH-N).
A great example of “Where there’s smoke, there’s often fire”. They’ve had conflict of interests with sales practices, etc. Historically, they are now trading at a discount. The problem is, what originally started in the personal consumer bank, has now really bloomed out to some commercial practices and corporations. If it turns out this is really bank wide, you are dealing with a whole other can of worms. You always want a high-quality franchise such as Bank of America (BAC-N) or J.P. Morgan (JPM-N). (See Top Picks.)
Video streaming. IPO’d at $14 a share and is currently at about $25.50. If you do the work, investigate the company and look at the end market you can get a very high hit rate on IPOs and do extremely well. At this point, he would say there is going to be significant turnover with a lot of people chasing it, and you are cruising in the $24-$28 range now. With that, there is going to be a lot of investor churn. There is a lot of head and tail winds mixing around. This is a point when his practice would be to step away. You are taking an outsized risk if they miss anything now.
Focuses on larger companies that have sustainable earnings drive with good moats around their franchise. This company is definitely one of those. At the same time, there is a product cycle to this company. When that happens, it typically happens after a larger product launch. This one is in an interesting situation right now. What they’ve opened up has a real chance of being game changing with real legs to it. However, it is going to take time. The iPhone 10 is selling at $1000 and up, and getting to a price point that is prohibitive for the average consumer, and is likely going to be bifurcating the market into a high and low end. The company has lots of runway left in the longer-term. Right now, you need to give it a little time for what seems to be a pretty seismic shift.
(A Top Pick May 17/17. Up 5%.) The chart is showing the stock has consolidated a little. Had a pretty great move in the first part of the year, as well as last year. The driver is still intact. Ads continue to go online. They are garnering a great share of Search. Spending in AI and everything in the background for secular drivers. He still likes this.
Hold or Sell? Within biotech and picking a single name, this company would be the way to do it. They are more diversified. They’ve had a few good quarters in a row beating earnings, and are still only trading at 14-16 levels. Putting up pretty good growth. Now that we are more comfortable with interest rates not going to the moon, that takes off the risk, opening up the door to make this more investable.
Disney (DIS-N) or Comcast (CMCSA-Q)? Both fall into the media space, which is particularly challenged right now. The sector is fighting headwinds. He is more positive on Disney, but it has been struggling. With cord cutting, re-bundling, etc. you are fighting the tide, so he would prefer Comcast. However, in the space as a whole, he would prefer not to fight the headwinds.
Disney (DIS-N) or Comcast (CMCSA-Q)? Both fall into the media space, which is particularly challenged right now. The sector is fighting headwinds. He is more positive on Disney, but it has been struggling. With cord cutting, re-bundling, etc. you are fighting the tide, so he would prefer this. However, in the space as a whole, he would prefer not to fight the headwinds.
Looking at a long-term chart, you can see the bleed, especially over a longer than a 1-year timeframe. They’ve had a very mixed quarterly performance. This is ultimately going to fall into that trap where you are facing a wall of people who have been buying it all the way down, and you are going to be meeting those people who are selling on the way up. The kind of situation he would step out of if he were in it.
It is tough to not like on what they have done in one year. Semis have been phenomenal, and this company has been right in there. It has consolidated more in the last little while. He got a little more cautious on tech a number of months ago, when it started to break down on the relative. However, semis have really come on and the numbers are looking okay. He would have a hard time arguing against this one. However, the valuation is tough, which is what would trip him up. He would prefer an ETF that replicates the stocks, and give you a basket approach.
Market. Started the year thinking we were going to see a 3% 10-year yield in the US, but has come back from that. Inflation hasn’t reversed course badly, so is not looking at deflation. No indicators are pretending a higher 3%-4%. Very positive on the US and European side, which are taking a very slow and steady approach. Making great strides towards not pushing rates up too aggressively. If they can just gradually move along, there are no inflation pressures and it doesn’t have to be rushed, so he is quite sanguine going into the remainder of the year.