Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and David Driscoll commented about whether OTEX-T, SYK-N, CLPBY-OTC, NFI-T, AMC-N, NVO-N, V-N, DB-N, VOD-Q, BCE-T, T-T, JMHLY-OTC, CNR-T, BRK.B-N, HLMA-LN, TMO-N, STN-T, AMZN-Q, SJM-N, VEOEY-5, ZWB-T, IPL-T, GILD-Q, SHOP-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Educational Segment. Financial Astrology. A study that went back to look for correlation between solar eclipses and stock market performance said that there is none. There are all kinds of financial astrologers. One newsletter makes market calls off astrology and he does not give it weight. There are all kinds of academic studies. The more sun there is the better markets do. There is correlation, but not causation. That is the ultimate question. There is a guy who correlates full moons to markets with the idea of disproving any and correlation he could not disprove it. Gold tends to either change or accelerate in a full moon. He recommends you don’t pay attention to it. Markets like wheat and corn are influenced by weather which is influenced by tides and those by the moon, so you have to be careful of that.
Markets. We are in the summer doldrums and the market is trending little lower. He does not do any shorting. He is in 20% cash for all portfolios. September/October tends to be when you get a hiccup and if it falls far enough he may pull the trigger and spend some of that cash. PE multiples are using adjusted rather than GAAP earnings. You are getting the aging demographic that aren’t spending as much money, companies doing a good job of cost cutting, which is deflationary, so you can’t expect the old rate of GDP growth. The market has rallied for 8 years because interest rates have never been this low for this long. The market could go sideways for 10 to 20 years. We don’t have to have a correction.
You have to look at the costs of the covered calls as well as MERs for these ETFs. The banks are so far performing the way they should. All banks are slightly down this year. In 2008 ALL the banks were down 40%. He would like to be more diversified. If we were in a long sideways market, then the covered calls would be beneficial.
A utility that does drinking water, waste management services, heating & A/C systems and operates rail. It is a big conglomerate. The investor is getting nothing more than the 4% dividend and no more, and no growth in the dividend. Nothing will offset inflation. He owns a 7% bond of theirs. He prefers STN-T and others globally.
They have a large proportion of their business is coffee. They just made a big pet food acquisition. Debt to equity ratios for these kinds of companies tend to be high because they have a high credit rating due to the fact that they are inelastic – people have to buy the products regardless. Their problem is that their revenues are starting to slide. Little eCommerce startups have eroded 3% of all the revenues of all the big guys. There is nothing wrong with the company and it is a matter of how quickly they can get the revenues back up.
It is a large portion of the index so there is a lot of ETF trading. The price is hard to value. Sometimes they have earnings and sometimes they don’t. Alibaba has the backing of the government of China and so he prefers this. It has a much better chance than AMZN-Q in expanding into India. If you want AMZN-Q then buy it in portions and watch Alibaba.
(Top Pick Nov 14/16, Down 1.75%) It offers value at this level. A lot of the problems with the acquisition of MWH appear to be behind them. Last quarter they came out with turnaround numbers that show them starting to improve. They are now into more water and environmental technology. They are starting to get more US exposure.
Has owned and holded since 1997. CNR has advantages in North America. They are North/South as well as East/West. They can transport goods from Winnipeg to Mexico City. Their acquisition allows them to get around Chicago quickly. They own a quarter of the container port in Prince Rupert BC, which is a day closer to Hong Kong than other coastal ports. Premier rail company in Canada and North America. They don’t just transport grain, they transport all sorts of products.
He is buying half positions for new clients right now. He has done this because the US dollar has dropped. This is the time of year when their stock price starts to move. If you believe the US$ will continue to fall, then the price should continue to rise. They don’t have a lot of leverage right now. If anything bad occurs they will step into the market to take advantage of opportunities. This is a way to be in Asia.
It has broken out of the 200 day moving average recently. As long as during any pull back that it holds the 200 and 70 day moving averages, we could expect to see some improvement. We could bounce up to about $80 before we struggle again. If it does not hold the $70 then get out.