Today, Matt Kacur commented about whether MTY-T, BWA-N, SU-T, AAPL-Q, DOL-T, GSK-N, SPE-T, KMB-N, EMA-T, IPL-T, UTHR-Q, LUN-T, CU-T, EIF-T, LNR-T, DH-T, GIL-T, BTO-T, BNP-T, BEP.UN-T, SJ-T, VET-T, MRU-T, CVX-N, ATD.B-T, G-T, T-T, AQN-T, COST-Q, STB-T are stocks to buy or sell.
The last quarter was better than he expected. ROC improved, but that is just not enough. Dividend yield of about 7.5% is very tempting, but almost too good to be true. Expects they are paying out too much. He would like them to reduce the dividend and pay down some of their debt, which would make it more interesting.
He is a big believer in this. Thinks the dividend is sustainable. They have earned 10%, 12%, 8% consistently over time in that range. He thinks a lower return is priced into the stock right now. The lower return they are earning at the moment should rebound in the long run. Feels the dividend is sustainable.
This is a good time to buy this, especially on the recent pullback. A couple of years ago they were earning an 18% ROC, and then they made a big investment and there was a bit of lag in their cash flow. The Return dropped, but the street was pretty smart in seeing through that, but in his data, that gives him a little bit of a pause. The return went down to 6% but is now up to 13% and seems to be climbing back.
Market. Oil companies have cut costs and got rid of marginal projects to such an extent that when and if energy prices rebound, there is enormous leverage. Oil, generally speaking, has a long cycle, and is now more efficient. Staple and discretionary stocks have come back, but still look expensive. They are really good companies, but are rich and they have just started to turn over a little and get a little bit cheaper. He keeps hoping they will keep dropping, giving a better opportunity.