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In the past few days there has been a huge run up since mid-May, and has bounced off significant support 3 times since February. It is bumping up against resistance of about $290. If it can break above that, it could imply significant upside potential. Chart shows a downward trend line and is currently bumping up against resistance, but shows a nice triple bottom.
Seasonally this tends to follow the same tendencies of the consumer discretionary sector, which tends to run from October all the way to the beginning of May. We are now past the period of seasonal strength. Technically it looks quite healthy. Resistance is at $81, and is not too far away. You want to see this break out or break down before taking a position.
We are approaching the period of seasonal strength for gold and gold miners. From July all the way through to October, stocks like this tend to do quite well. Technically you are probably not going to see much downside. It gapped higher today. There was a plunge in the US$ which is favourable for gold. There is support at the 20 and 50 day moving averages. The trend is still positive. If you can buy this closer to the 50 day moving average, that would be ideal.
Between November through to April, basically the run-up into the spring selling season, is when the demand for lumber is. Lumber and forestry stocks tend to go higher. They average about 60% gain between November and April. Even October tends to be a positive month. Technically it is now bumping up against resistance at about $2.35.
Auto stocks tend to do well in the spring, basically March to May. This hit a low in February along with the broader market, and ran strongly up into March and then kind of faded. Technically the chart shows a bit of a head and shoulders pattern, and then it came back down to support at $50. There is trend line resistance hovering around $55. It is a descending triangle, a bearish set up. It would imply that the next move is lower. Clearly the trend is negative.
Consumer staple stocks tend to do well in the summer. This is a time when you want to collect things with yield. This one has a bit of yield at 1.7%. It tends to run up to a September peak. There is a decent gain, but the technicals leave much to be desired. There is a long-term declining trend, and gapped lower in March, which tends to act as resistance. Not the best consumers staple. (See Top Picks.)
Technology stocks tend to do all right, between April through to mid-July. Technical support is at around $10. It broke over the past few days along with a number of other semiconductor stocks, and is now bumping up against trend line resistance near its 200 day moving average. Wouldn’t be surprised if it consolidates here. Still has the seasonal tailwinds behind it all the way through to July/August timeframe.
From March through to about the beginning of June is a good period of seasonal strength. We are just coming off the tail end of it. Average gain during that time is about 8%. There is another period of seasonal strength between October and the end of the year. Technically there was horizontal resistance at about $19, and it is touching that now and trying to consolidate above its previous resistance.
Seasonally, consumer staples tend to do very well in the summer. US consumer staples are not too hot right now, but the Canadian is doing quite well. If you want an ETF to play it use iShares S&P/TSX Cap. Consumer Staples (XST-T). Between June 20 and November 12, he has an average gain of about 8.9%, and has been positive in 14 of the past 20 periods.
