Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Markets. Every time there is a Monday holiday we seem to get some market volatility. S&P got down 9.4% and he was looking for 10, so we saw that. 16-17% of the S&P has reported already and he gives it a B+ rating. IBM missed big, but when looking at various sectors, the change in earnings have been actually pretty good and in fact a bit better than expected by about 2-3% going into the quarter. Revenue has been better than expected except for IBM and they are pointing to currency problems. IBM may be a specific story. We’ve seen some pretty good moves in financial stocks in the US after earnings reports. He thinks it is a 70% chance it is a market bottom for now. It may be a challenge in 2015 as the FED tries to ‘remove accommodation’.

From a 3-5 year perspective he likes oil and gas. He was looking for pullback and we got it. Looking out at the dividends from the energy sector, relative to where the banks are, he likes the dividend in the energy sector much better than the banks for the next 3-5 years. There is talk, though, in the market where Saudi Arabia are going to be complacent in the energy price and this will punish Russia. The spike below $80 in oil is probably the bottom and certainly in the low end of the range. Below $75 makes no sense because of cost of production.

He turned negative 4-6 months ago. Now he bought it at $36-$37 and it is neutral to up a little right now. You don’t need to rush into it as you will see a lot of up and down in this sector. Wait for the Russia/Ukraine situation to be resolved.

Gold. A number of months ago he identified a double bottom. We tested those. But every rally has gone to lower highs. The now triple bottom is still vulnerable. Gold is not responding to recent S&P lows the way it should. Wait for panic selling and then buy in for the next decade. The lows of last year have to be taken out and then there has to be panic selling.

Uranium. He added it to his portfolio over the last week. He thinks the sector will make a bottom, but he does not know when. He thinks it is a very attractive sector right now and CCO-T is his preferred way to play it. You have to be willing to sit with it because it is volatile.

The stock has been cut in half from a year ago and is very attractive here because somewhere here oil bottoms. This stock could see more volatility and fall another 20%, but look out 5 years and it is very attractive.

US Dollar and portfolio adjustment. Japan needs to continue to weaken their currency. Euro may go to parity. US dollar staying strong may be a drag on US earnings so you may want to change your portfolio as currencies weaken.

Educational Segment. Volatility and the Bond Market. In his sleep at night portfolio he looked for this correction. Bond markets have done very well. With 3 ETFs you can buy the entire world of fixed income. He saw a 10 point spike in their charts. Hedged fund portfolios are forced to come and buy fixed income securities. He looked at the spread between VIX futures. Wednesday of last week we saw the spike in the VIX spot and the bottoming of the S&P. What he did was to get out of a lot of fixed income and rolled it into equities while they were so low and bonds were so high.

Markets. He is starting to pick at some stuff. He gets the sense that the worse is over for the correction. Same for the stories that had people nervous have started to abate. We were three years without a pullback. He never sells into those things. November and December are pretty good months usually. If you held good solid companies you only got knocked back a few percent.

Cash flow per share is the more important metric. Don’t get fussed about the high PE ratio. The cash flow has to pay the big dividend and replace assets as they deplete. He has never been bullish on CPG-T because their payout seems overly optimistic. The payout ratio is unsustainable if oil prices stay low for any period of time. If they cut the dividend then the stock will fall like a rock. He only has SU-T and CNQ-T.

Banks or Healthcare? Banks in Canada have been money makers in Canada as long as the eyes can see. Banks double every 10 years. To invest in Healthcare you have to invest outside of Canada and lose the dividend tax credit. He likes medical device companies. ZMH-N is a preference in healthcare.

Stock has come down about 15%. People didn’t like the earnings last week. Revenue was light and EPS was light. People are worried about the pay per click they are getting. It is hard to find a 16 Billion dollar company growing at 20%.

Huge bumper crop in US in grains this year. Prices in agriculture commodity companies have gone down since they went up in the past due to scares the Chinese would need so much more grains and that global warming would reduce supply. He stays away from this sector.

Life Companies. They make more money when bond yields are higher. Right now bonds are so unrewarding. If you are SLF-T or one of the others, then what you get on your bonds is so much less than before the financial crisis. The question is how they can invest unearned premiums. He thinks it is premature to buy the pure life insurance companies at this time.

(Top Pick Oct 21/13, Up 4.15%) Mostly the distribution. It’s pretty stable and there are growth prospects in Western Canada. The expectation is 6% return.