Today, Darren Sissons and Peter Imhof commented about whether LSI-X, 0066-HK, MRW-LSE, BBT-N, NBG-N, BCS-N, NOK-N, OIBR-N, TI-N, CHL-N, BAC-N, BNS-T, HSBC-N, UL-N, LYG-N, PFE-N, BP-N, AMAT-Q, ALU-N, SAN-N, AAPL-Q, ORAN-N, VOD-Q, PUK-N, NOAH-N, ALO-T, ALO-T, TAO-T, NEPT-T, MND-T, MMT-T, RPL-X, MCR-X, BTO-T, CLS-T, TME-X, SYZ-T, MRE-T, LNR-T, MG-T, CS-T, QTRH-T, E-T, PONY-T, AIF-T, TRZ-T, CNE-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Higher interest rates are going to cure their past issues. Probably a higher risk than Lloyd’s (LYG-N) or HSBC (HBC-N). If you’ve held it for a long period of time, your choices are a) double down or b) Sell and move into HSBC if you want financial exposure. However, he feels there will be more upside over a 3-5 year period.
The catalyst here is that it pays an attractive dividend, is vertically integrated and has a good balance sheet. They are going to monetize some of their real estate portfolio. A gradual monetization of that up to about 70% could realize up to $2 billion worth of capital, return to shareholders in either the form of a special dividend, a dividend increase or share buyback. Very good management team.
International fertilizer industry? In terms of fertilizers, he has always looked at this as a very strange market. Believes that a lot of the food inflation that we have experienced has largely been driven by the US Food for Energy trade that has demanded large amounts of potash fertilizers to drive the corn volumes in order to get ethanol. Feels the trade is getting a little long in the tooth. Also you are starting to see South America having some challenges in getting high yields for food commodity products. He would be wary of this area.