The argument for this one is that the environment looks pretty good. Big sales in China and US sales are ramping up. The fleet is getting old, some say 13-14 years. Asia is a very important place to be. When he analyzed balance sheets he bought Tata (TTM-N) and Ford (F-N). They will all break out and do better. Wait for a pull back.
Portfolio managers cut this because of China, but he disagreed. Demand comes out of Asia and not North America. Numbers out of China and India are looking quite good. Produces a lot in Brazil. Thinks they will do well as Asian economies continue to improve. Commodities tend to turn and stay. Copper is looking like it is going to do well.
Just sold his when they announced the deal. But it has done well since then. You have to know what is act two in the play. He thinks you will get something, perhaps a special dividend. He left for a better opportunity but there is nothing negative on the horizon. Great yield and lots of cash on the balance sheet.
(Top Pick Jul 05/12, Up 77.18%) trimmed it and added back on the dips. We got a pull back in the spring due to currency flux. It is the third largest exporter in Brazil. 1.7 billions Poultry per year slaughtered. Owns the Brazilian market. They have potential for significant growth. The risk to the investment is currency risk, international competition, of which there is not a lot.
He is reducing his position on oils because of his outlook on oils. There will be plenty of supply hitting the markets in the next 2-3 years. We know where 90% of the oil is in the world and most is accessible through horizontal drilling. He thinks there is some head winds and there will be no uplift in energy. Oil field services companies would be a better choice. He has Alta Gas.
Markets. A lot of people think we are way over bought but we are actually lagging, based on 1932 and 1980 cycles. The Dow is supposed to reflect the economy of the time. In 1932 we manufactured everything we used. The Dow was similar in psychology. We have not recovered as much as we did in other downturns. The US market leads and is leading the market. China is the best economy but when you look at financial services markets, the US is still where the money is. We are not over extended and the correction is much further down the road (another year or so).