Economy. IMF lowered their growth outlook for the global economy from 3.1% to 2.9% for 2013 and 3.20% to 2.6% for 2014. This is because of the Washington induced uncertainty that has come out which is creating uncertainty globally. This is not the 1st time that Washington has had challenges in terms of debt ceilings or budgets. If the market sells off between 3%-7%, it is a healthy level to get back in.
Crude oil. Believes $103 price is sustainable. Geopolitical tensions (Syria) pushed the prices north of $110 a barrel and then once the Russians and Syria struck a deal so that the US would not invade, the price pulled back to $103 level. $95 to $105 level is healthy for oil. As global economies recover this bodes well for oil.
Thailand-based producer of onshore and offshore oil. Producing about 20,000-25,000 barrels a day so are generating excellent cash flows because they get Brent pricing. About a year ago, a Thailand-based company was interested in them and recently there are rumours that a Hong Kong-based company is also interested. They are looking at a price of around $21 but he thinks the assets are worth $21-$25.
Likes this as a utility play. Natural gas utility in BC and have a number of other assets, including real estate and Caribbean utilities as well. They’ll get paid because they generate the power electricity and get paid by contract. They’ll have to fund the acquisition of the New York company but the markets are healthy for equity issues these days. 4% dividend yield. Could flirt with $35 in the next year.
It’s a sign of the times that US investors are finally seeing some of the opportunities in Canadian energy names. This has a bunch of assets globally, including Canada with their Duvernay/Montney along with the UK North sea. The prize is the Southeast Asian assets that they have. If this goes, it will go at North of $15.
This is one of his favourite holdings in mining. Diversified with exposure to both copper and met coal and they also have some oil sand leases with their interest in the Fort Hills. This is tied to the global economy. The Chinas of the world continue to grow. They are growing at 7.5% per year, compared to 10% before, however it is still absolute growth.
Believes they have some of the best assets in the Alberta region in their Cardium lands, as well as in Saskatchewan in the Bakken. Dividend yield is something like 13% and this is because they have a very high debt level of about $2.2 billion, which represents about 3.4X debt to cash flow. They have a 90% investment in Trial (?), which is going to be taken over by a Polish company which should help to pay down the debt.
Likes this name. Big in the Duvernay lands in the deep basin of Alberta. Recently raised a couple of hundred million. Producing over 20,000 barrels per day of oil and gas. Because of the hot Duvernay, he thinks they are in the right spot with the right pockets. Can see this in the mid-$30s in 12 months.
Good name. They are in utilities. Nova Scotia utility is their main asset, but they also have pipelines in the East Coast. They are making an acquisition of New England Power of about $540 million, so the short-term concern is that they may have to come to the market to make an equity issue. An equity issue would be the time to step into this name.
Likes the services to the oil and gas companies. With the total CapX programs, about $250 million this year, it will result in additional cash flows.