Big healthy dividend but not a lot of growth. Earnings forecasts, going out this year and next, are pretty flat. A little slippage this year so there is not a lot of dynamic momentum behind the stock. Recently has been slipping back a little. There is some risk to about $24 a share from a technical standpoint but that's all he can see. He has a Hold on the stock. If it goes back to $24, he would probably put it back to a Buy.
Stock got up to about 4X its BV and when he looked at the ROE and all the valuation metrics, it reached his target. Difficult to see that the stock can go any higher than its recent peak price. Given earnings forecasts, the only way he can see it going higher is as a pure momentum play. You might consider Discover Financial (DFS-N), which is a lot cheaper and has a decent ROE and could move higher.
On top of everything else, China entered the fertilizer fray by taking 13% of a Russian potash producer. China is not looking to maximize its return on investments, but to maximize its return on cheap fertilizer. This would suggest that prices are still likely to work lower. He also sees downside risks for both Potash (POT-T) and Agrium (AGU-T).
(A Top Pick September 7/12. Down 35.35%.) You ought to be nibbling away at gold stocks. Some gold stocks are very cheap, but this one is not one of those. Fairly low cost of production, so it probably represents better value than some of the cheaper ones. However cheaper stocks have a lot more leverage on a rebound in the price of gold. (See Top Picks.)
Markets. Doesn’t expect to see any kind of tapering on quantitative easing for quite a while. Ben Bernanke’s notes indicated that they were pulling back on growth estimates for the US economy and they have been doing that for 5 years since 2008. US economy is not catching fire the way they had hoped. Also, entering into an election year and the last thing that either party wants to see is interest rates leaping up and the stock market plunging down. Looking at the valuation of the market itself and the earnings forecasts, we are seeing forecasts falling steadily. There is also a lot of value compression in the index, which in the past has presaged falling markets.