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Stock Opinions by Christine Poole

COMMENT

Today's resignation by the Finance Minister on the same day as the fiscal update is not timely. Today the Nasdaq is hitting new highs. We've had two straight years of strong returns, which is unusually. The TSX is up 20% this year, playing catch-up vs. the S&P's 25%. The market is discounting good news. The market expects Trump's presidency will see more M&A and investment. Consensus says that S&P companies will grow earnings in 2025 by 14% from 10% this year. Canada's weaker economy has seen interest rates fall much faster here (75 basis points), though cuts may be more measured in 2025. Now, the mortgage market is better. The banks just reported the positive effect of lower rates should be felt in latter-2015, which is good. The street expects the US Fed's Powell to cut, but watch for his comments and tone.

Unknown
DON'T BUY
Moderna

Post-Covid, they have a pipeline of drugs under development, related to vaccines and cancer. This is higher-risk in health care. They have $3 billion in revenues, but are spending a lot in R&D, more than their revenues, so they're not profitable. 

Pharma & Healthcare
SELL ON STRENGTH
Shopify Inc.

E-commerce remains strong, so the stock has had a good recent few months. But the valuation is too high. Take profits, if you own.

0
DON'T BUY
Nuvista Energy Ltd

She sold this a year ago. She expected after their spin-off to improve margins and product line, but the dental industry is cyclical and tied to the job market. As interest rates rose, many patients deferred treatment. Also, it's in a competitive market and growth was soft in some geographies. Wait and see how the new CEO executes.

oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Manulife Financial

The CEO, retiring next year, is doing a fine job, selling unprofitable product lines, and growth resumed in Hong Kong. MFC is now fully valued. She owns another insurer, though.

insurance
BUY ON WEAKNESS

A great income stock, operating pipelines in western Canada. She just issued 2025 guidance with EBITDA growth at 4-6%. She expects them to increase the 5.2% dividend. The current pullback is likely due to weak energy prices, but makes the stock attractive to buy.

pipelines
DON'T BUY
Uber

It's profitable now. But shares are slumping because of Waymo--their robo-taxis now operate in four cities and will add Miami in 2026. What is the future of ride-shares? Will we need drivers? Also, Uber drivers are contractors, but we keep hearing about how little they earn, which means their could a change in regulations about treating these drivers.

Technology
DON'T BUY
Uber

It's profitable now. But shares are slumping because of Waymo--their robo-taxis now operate in four cities and will add Miami in 2026. What is the future of ride-shares? Will we need drivers? Also, Uber drivers are contractors, but we keep hearing about how little they earn, which means their could a change in regulations about treating these drivers.

Technology
COMMENT
Canadian bank outlook

You need to own Canadian banks for their increasing dividends. They've been building provisions in the event of credit losses--a headwind--but these are starting to peak. The banks recently said that that the positive impact of falling interest rates will be felt in latter 2025 (mortgage renewals). RY is her top pick.

Unknown
HOLD
Toronto Dominion

She sold some shares after the penalty was announced, because the measures would cap their US growth, an attractive area for growth. Their discounted valuation reflected concerns. They can still grow in Canada. It trades under 10x PE and the dividend is over 5%. If TD can get their act together and grow earnings, she PE could rise.

banks
BUY

The merger doesn't take effect until Jan. 1; she see few changes after the merger. Price has disappointed post-Covid, given inventory and interest rate hurdles. With rates falling, she expected health care to resume, but she thinks that spend is delayed. The stimulus in China will help. With the new US president, we also don't know what will happen to this sector. But she likes TMO's fundamentals, and would buy at these levels.

electrical / electronic
BUY
Medtronic Inc

Well-managed. She likes this sector, medical devices, becuse procedures are picking up, and aging demographics are another tailwind.

biotechnology / pharmaceutical
PAST TOP PICK
Loblaw Companies Ltd
(A Top Pick Nov 23/23, Up 61%)

Wait for a pullback, given current highs. As Canada's economy softens, more shoppers spend at their discount banners. Shoppers are doing very well in beauty goods as they get out of the low-margin electronics; many provinces are allowing pharmacists to expand their role, which is another tailwind for Shoppers Drug Mart (that Loblaw owns). They are expanding their margins and guiding higher.

food stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 23/23, Up 16%)

Has undeperformed the market because new sales in China have been weak. However, Otis is in an oligopoly with a leading share of 19%. Also, service contracts are very profitable with 65% of global customers opting into a service contract when they buy their elevator, and 50% in China, but that number is climbing. She expects earnings growth around 9%. Also, elevators are aging and need repair/replacement.

machinery
PAST TOP PICK
Royal Bank
(A Top Pick Nov 23/23, Up 54%)

Nothing has gone wrong for them. The HSBC merger closed last March and will synergize nicely. RY trades at a premium PE and yields 3.2%. She likes their capital markets business, half in the U.S, which could increase in 2025.

banks
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