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Christine Poole
CEO & Managing Director at GlobeInvest Capital Management
Member since: Jul '09 · 4241 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 323 24.18% | 392 29.34% | 273 20.43% | 223 16.69% | 125 9.36% | ||
| 1 Month | 5 | 3 0.96% | 114 36.54% | 129 41.35% | 62 19.87% | 4 1.28% | |
| 6 Months | 5 | 41 13.53% | 117 38.61% | 69 22.77% | 58 19.14% | 18 5.94% | |
| 12 Months | 5 | 83 28.23% | 86 29.25% | 46 15.65% | 53 18.03% | 26 8.84% | |
| 2 Years | 5 | 109 41.76% | 56 21.46% | 21 8.05% | 31 11.88% | 44 16.86% | |
| 5 Years | 4.98 | 87 52.41% | 19 11.45% | 8 4.82% | 19 11.45% | 33 19.88% |
Stock Opinions by Christine Poole
We'll see what happens, and if the full 25% is applied. With these tariffs, there's always delayed implementation. The US needs our lumber; they can't supply their needs domestically. If tariffs of 25% do get implemented, it'll hurt the US homebuilders who will have to raise prices, and then hurt the entire US housing market.
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Tariffs would be like a supply shock. What could happen is stagflation (high inflation, but slowing economic growth) which no one wants.
From a monetary point of view, when there's high inflation central banks start raising interest rates to slow demand. But at the same time this erodes purchasing power, which may slow economic growth and increase unemployment. Usually when unemployment is rising, you cut interest rates. The central banks are dealing with that dilemma right now.
The Fed minutes came out yesterday, and they appear to be in wait-and-see mode. Inflation does appear to be stickier in the US than in Canada, but there's a lot of uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Canada's inflation has come down quite a bit, so our central bank has been cutting rates much more rapidly. The overall US economy is healthier than Canada's.
They're off today, but all indices are near record highs. The S&P 500 reached a new high a couple of days ago. Even the TSX is up 2-3% YTD. This tells her that the financial markets are thinking that tariffs won't be fully implemented. If the tariffs were to be fully implemented, it'll be very bad for the Canadian economy and our stock market will eventually be hit.
So the markets are thinking that the tariff threats are a negotiation tool, but we'll have to see how it all plays out.
Good idea. Together, CP and CNR have a duopoloy within Canada plus operations in the US. Rails have not performed that well this past year. Company guiding to high-single to double-digit topline growth. Tariffs won't impact directly, but risk is that economic slowdown would affect volumes. Trading ~18x forward PE, and wide discount to CP.
Good idea. She owns CNR. Together, CP and CNR have a duopoloy within Canada plus operations in the US. Rails have not performed that well this past year. Tariffs won't impact directly, but risk is that economic slowdown would affect volumes. CNR trades ~18x forward PE, and wide discount to CP, so she'd pick CNR.
She doesn't own any producers, and she owns PPL, so she likes that idea.
Energy infrastructure names provide good income flow. Less influenced by direction of commodity prices. Long-term contracts. Well positioned to benefit from increased nat gas production. Defensive. Yield is just under 6%; dividend increased consistently, and that should continue.
Good growth in Asia. Asset management becoming a more important part of the business for all lifecos. Probably trading at higher end of historical levels. More room to go. Solid holding as long as it continues to execute. Yield is relatively attractive, increases over time.
Indicated a move of head office to US, but doesn't have to do with tariffs. They're global, yet Canada provides only a small percentage of earnings. Management believes a move would encourage more US-based indices to include it, thereby broadening its potential shareholder base.
70% of revenue base is located outside Canada, so makes some sense. As well, once you become a US company you're no longer subject to Trump's tariffs. Not great for corporate Canada.
Could be just because they've done so well. Valuations are stretched to the higher end. Might also be uncertainty as to impact of tariffs. She read an article about some companies waiting for IPOs, as they're unsure how receptive capital markets will be. One-year returns are up 40-50+%. Nice rally post-election on promises of less regulation.
With the money laundering scandal, she trimmed. Still has US operations, so will benefit from capital markets activity. Can focus on its Canadian operations. Kept it because of its very attractive valuation and yield. Can still grow in other areas; US retail represents only 25% of earnings. Very strong balance sheet, can use it to buy back stock.
On her watchlist. Have to have a very long-term view on uranium to buy this name. Long-term contracts, which don't reflect uranium spot price. Nuclear resurgence, positive on the sector. Price still ahead of itself. She has indirect exposure through BIP.UN, which co-owns Westinghouse with CCO.
The Firefly acquisition made her sell the whole position; US market is very competitive, plus this will require capex. Balance sheet very levered. Yield is over 12%; market anticipates a dividend cut, and wants them to so they can move on. Dividend under ongoing review by the board. Any cut might see further drop in the stock, and you can reassess the company and its valuation at that time.
Better income stocks to own out there. When you buy for income, you want good coverage, visibility, and increases. This name doesn't provide any of that.
US economy did better last year than expected. Waiting for a pullback to add new client money. Best-in-class US bank. Very strong balance sheet and management team.
