Gordon Reid
President at GoodReid Investment Counsel
Member since: Oct '07 · 3954 Opinions
Rating Card
Premium content| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.94 | 370 30.03% | 304 24.68% | 177 14.37% | 237 19.24% | 144 11.69% | ||
| 1 Month | 5 | 12 3.99% | 114 37.87% | 92 30.56% | 81 26.91% | 2 0.66% | |
| 6 Months | 5 | 60 20.76% | 93 32.18% | 53 18.34% | 63 21.80% | 20 6.92% | |
| 12 Months | 5 | 108 40.00% | 51 18.89% | 17 6.30% | 55 20.37% | 39 14.44% | |
| 2 Years | 5 | 115 48.52% | 35 14.77% | 10 4.22% | 26 10.97% | 51 21.52% | |
| 5 Years | 4.72 | 75 55.56% | 11 8.15% | 5 3.70% | 12 8.89% | 32 23.70% |
Stock Opinions by Gordon Reid
He expects Fed Chair Powell to sound cautious. There are a lot of moving parts. The recent labour stats showed cracks. Another labour print before the Fed meets again, which he will want to see. Also, US inflation has been sticky, especially services. Expects Powell to say it's data dependent and won't show his cards. The bull market continues, still led by few stocks and sectors (communications and tech). Healthcare, energy and discetionary have struggled, though, but is not unusual. Bull markets get narrower as they mature. Small caps: he's had great success if you're a stockpicker. Lower interest rates favour small caps which are heavily levered.
A challenging stock in a challenging sector. 47 million Americans are covered under their programs; 60% of plans are fee-based, so they pass some of the risk to employers. He expected this set up to partially insulate ELV from what's hitting this industry. He was wrong. Many operations that were delayed by Covid are happening now, while a large cohort of people who lost their jobs became eligible for Medicaid. Before, pricing reflected low utilization, but suddenly that surged and pricing has lagged. Pricing is reactive. There could be a V-shaped bottom in this sector. Maybe.
Usually, they allow others to invest in new technologies, let's them make the mistakes, then Apple enters to capture the entire space, as in music and the phone. He expects the same game plan with AI. This strategy is already baked into the shares. The PE is richly valued. Part of this comes to shifting services to 28% of their overall business, a high-margin business, including their app store. And the app store will be their entry into AI. Over 20 years, the shares have seen good and bad times, including three 50% drops. Recent revenue and earnings growth has been poor, so you need faith for the long run.
There was a lot of hype in the weight-loss drugs, typical for a new drug (or technology). This and Novo Nordisk have recently fallen. The future asks, How will they monetize the GLP-1 franchise? An oral application, which will happen in time. Many moving parts in this industry. LLY's PE has fallen from 50x to 35x. Is a hold depending on your overall portfolio and other factors.
China is the biggest buyer of copper in the world, over 50% worldwide. Long-term, copper is a winner, used widely (power generation, EVs, and elsewhere). FCX is one of the largest copper companies, the biggest in the U.S. FCX has bounced around because of Trump's tariffs. He will sit tight, but expected copper demand to double in coming years.
Continues to like it, despite many headwinds, including a $5 billion charge this year from tariffs. Shares used to be incredible cheap in terms of EBITDA. They have a good model and compete well against Ford. They have an EV program. He's happy to sit tight until the wind shifts.
