Stock Opinions by Paul Macdonald - Stockchase Experts
WATCH LIST
143
Paul Macdonald

On Stockchase since : Jun 2016

Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager at Harvest Portfolios Group

Reveal Expert Performance

Paul Macdonald hasn’t left any messages.


Paul Macdonald Latest Top Picks...

Stock Opinions by Paul Macdonald - Stockchase Experts

Signal Opinion Expert Chart
COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 3, 2018

US-China truce spark a rally today, but can it last? Trump said a lot of things this weekend, and thhis entire year has been volatile. It's nice to see a reprieve. We haven't seen earnings decline, though there's been a multiple compression in the broad market. He's still bullish about 2019. In Canada, Alberta Premier Notley cut oil production will initially cause the WCS spread to narrow, but long-term the ruisk premium will go up in Canadian oil. He prefers buying dominant global oil players, not just Canadian. As for healthcare, you should always hold them in your portfolio, because they are a permanent non-cyclical sector with aging demographics bring a tailwind. The long-term fundamentals are strongs, despite any short-term political headwinds. Healthcare is 15% of global equities; hold 10-15% in a portfolio.
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
US-China truce spark a rally today, but can it last? Trump said a lot of things this weekend, and thhis entire year has been volatile. It's nice to see a reprieve. We haven't seen earnings decline, though there's been a multiple compression in the broad market. He's still bullish about 2019. In Canada, Alberta Premier Notley cut oil production will initially cause the WCS spread to narrow, but long-term the ruisk premium will go up in Canadian oil. He prefers buying dominant global oil players, not just Canadian. As for healthcare, you should always hold them in your portfolio, because they are a permanent non-cyclical sector with aging demographics bring a tailwind. The long-term fundamentals are strongs, despite any short-term political headwinds. Healthcare is 15% of global equities; hold 10-15% in a portfolio.
Unknown
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

WATCH
Gilead Sciences Inc.(GILD-Q) 

December 3, 2018

A frustrating stock. They have expensive drugs, such as for hepatitis C. They failed to build out their franchise and not making acquisitions, and have only been doing that in the past few years. Their HIV franchise is doing quite well, though. They acquired Kite Pharma which could be a game-changer later. It's trading at 10x earnings. Upcoming catalysts are a liver study in Q1/Q2 could be positive. Maybe. But is GILD a value trap or opportunity? Buy it as its chart improves.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
A frustrating stock. They have expensive drugs, such as for hepatitis C. They failed to build out their franchise and not making acquisitions, and have only been doing that in the past few years. Their HIV franchise is doing quite well, though. They acquired Kite Pharma which could be a game-changer later. It's trading at 10x earnings. Upcoming catalysts are a liver study in Q1/Q2 could be positive. Maybe. But is GILD a value trap or opportunity? Buy it as its chart improves.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$70.860
Owned Owned
Yes

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

BUY
Medtronic Inc(MDT-N) 

December 3, 2018

Likes it very much. Thought bought Covidien, a medical device maker, a few years back. They're executing very well, such as their diabetes franchise which boosted their guidance recently to 5.5% growth in 2019. Valuation good at 17.5x vs. peers. Many of their products are essential services which is anothe tailwind.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Likes it very much. Thought bought Covidien, a medical device maker, a few years back. They're executing very well, such as their diabetes franchise which boosted their guidance recently to 5.5% growth in 2019. Valuation good at 17.5x vs. peers. Many of their products are essential services which is anothe tailwind.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$98.750
Owned Owned
Yes

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

WAIT
Maybe the CVS acqusition of Aetna is synergistic by putting Aetna facilities besides CVS locations, but will this drive volume within the pharamcy? He's not sure. Trades at 10x earnings. With this purchase, their debt is higher. Wait a couple of quarters to see if the acqusition pans out.
specialty stores
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Maybe the CVS acqusition of Aetna is synergistic by putting Aetna facilities besides CVS locations, but will this drive volume within the pharamcy? He's not sure. Trades at 10x earnings. With this purchase, their debt is higher. Wait a couple of quarters to see if the acqusition pans out.
specialty stores
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$85.690
Owned Owned
Unknown

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

COMMENT
McKesson Corp(MCK-N) 

December 3, 2018

He exited. They distribute drugs, a price x volume business, with retail pharmacy (Rexall) outlets in Canada as well as another chain in Germany. The stock is cheap, but the overall business is in the process of changing as the discussion in the States shifts from high drug prices to rebates. That's why he's on the sidelines of the drug distributors. Also, branded drug prices are rising 6-8%, but generics are falling 8-10% annually--that's begative. He's on the sidelines of this sector. Keep an eye on generic pricing.
wholesale distributors
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
He exited. They distribute drugs, a price x volume business, with retail pharmacy (Rexall) outlets in Canada as well as another chain in Germany. The stock is cheap, but the overall business is in the process of changing as the discussion in the States shifts from high drug prices to rebates. That's why he's on the sidelines of the drug distributors. Also, branded drug prices are rising 6-8%, but generics are falling 8-10% annually--that's begative. He's on the sidelines of this sector. Keep an eye on generic pricing.
wholesale distributors
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$127.160
Owned Owned
No

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

COMMENT
GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK-N) 

December 3, 2018

Very frustrating. He likes their long-life assets and consumer health business (consistent cash flows). They have some pipeline. Acqusitions surprised him--in 2016, GSK swapped their oncology assets for vaccine assets of Novartis. Then, they spun out their consumer businesses into a joint venture. It was bizarre they purchased oncology; is it accretive? He thinks they bought it to see where else they can extract value. They paid a hefty premium to buy Tessaro. GSK pays a large dividend and has a strong balance sheet, so good income.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Very frustrating. He likes their long-life assets and consumer health business (consistent cash flows). They have some pipeline. Acqusitions surprised him--in 2016, GSK swapped their oncology assets for vaccine assets of Novartis. Then, they spun out their consumer businesses into a joint venture. It was bizarre they purchased oncology; is it accretive? He thinks they bought it to see where else they can extract value. They paid a hefty premium to buy Tessaro. GSK pays a large dividend and has a strong balance sheet, so good income.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$38.610
Owned Owned
Yes

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

PAST TOP PICK
Anthem Inc(ANTM-N) 

December 3, 2018

(A Top Pick Jul 05/18, Up 24%) Across 14 states, they're a managed-care company including health insurance. They benefit from the privatization of Medicare. Every quarter they beat. They've had a great run. He uses covered calls on this. A strong hold.
medical services
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
(A Top Pick Jul 05/18, Up 24%) Across 14 states, they're a managed-care company including health insurance. They benefit from the privatization of Medicare. Every quarter they beat. They've had a great run. He uses covered calls on this. A strong hold.
medical services
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$296.250
Owned Owned
Yes

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

PAST TOP PICK
Amgen Inc.(AMGN-Q) 

December 3, 2018

(A Top Pick Jul 05/18, Up 10%) He held onto this over the summer, despite expecting autumnal volatility. It's a diversified biotech and big in bio-similars, so AMGN would benefit from an uptick here. It's reasonably priced.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
(A Top Pick Jul 05/18, Up 10%) He held onto this over the summer, despite expecting autumnal volatility. It's a diversified biotech and big in bio-similars, so AMGN would benefit from an uptick here. It's reasonably priced.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$202.930
Owned Owned
Yes

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

PAST TOP PICK
Merck & Company(MRK-N) 

December 3, 2018

(A Top Pick Jul 05/18, Up 29%) An investor should diversify in the health sector, and MRK is a diversified health company. MRK has done very well in their oncology side. They're becoming dominant in immunotherapies. MRK gets their science and data right, unlike their peers.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
(A Top Pick Jul 05/18, Up 29%) An investor should diversify in the health sector, and MRK is a diversified health company. MRK has done very well in their oncology side. They're becoming dominant in immunotherapies. MRK gets their science and data right, unlike their peers.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$79.220
Owned Owned
Yes

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

WATCH
Becton Dickinson(BDX-N) 

December 3, 2018

Merely an okay last quarter with cost increases and more debt after an acquisition. Resin cost inputs are worth watching. Trades at 18x earnings. Watching this closely. Neutral.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Merely an okay last quarter with cost increases and more debt after an acquisition. Resin cost inputs are worth watching. Trades at 18x earnings. Watching this closely. Neutral.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$252.560
Owned Owned
No

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

HOLD
Pfizer Inc(PFE-N) 

December 3, 2018

Likes it. Diversified pharma. Good pipeline of assets that look robust. Trades at 15x earnings, which is reasonable. Slightly lower growth rate than peers but pays a good dividend. The chart looks fantastic and has benefited from the recent safety trade.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Likes it. Diversified pharma. Good pipeline of assets that look robust. Trades at 15x earnings, which is reasonable. Slightly lower growth rate than peers but pays a good dividend. The chart looks fantastic and has benefited from the recent safety trade.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$45.990
Owned Owned
Yes

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

COMMENT
R&D-to-sales metric steered him away from Valeant (what Bausch used to be named). The current CEO is doing a great job transitioning and paying debt and de-risking the company. They appear to be doing well during this restructuring.
Healthcare
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
R&D-to-sales metric steered him away from Valeant (what Bausch used to be named). The current CEO is doing a great job transitioning and paying debt and de-risking the company. They appear to be doing well during this restructuring.
Healthcare
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$25.280
Owned Owned
No

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 3, 2018

As tech pulls back, will we see an upswing in health? Tech could continue to post robust returns, depsite the fall rout. He likes tech a lot. But the tech sector still trades at a discount to the wider market. Pharma is considered a "superior good" and has outpaced the wider market with great topline growth. Hold 10-15% health, especially large-cap biotech. Drug spending is 10% of expenditures for Americans, but also a political lightning rod. He likes the move towards more transparency in drug pricing.
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
As tech pulls back, will we see an upswing in health? Tech could continue to post robust returns, depsite the fall rout. He likes tech a lot. But the tech sector still trades at a discount to the wider market. Pharma is considered a "superior good" and has outpaced the wider market with great topline growth. Hold 10-15% health, especially large-cap biotech. Drug spending is 10% of expenditures for Americans, but also a political lightning rod. He likes the move towards more transparency in drug pricing.
Unknown
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

COMMENT
Zoetis Inc(ZTS-N) 

December 3, 2018

They've been hitting it out of the park and continues to see great topline growth. He sold it because Eli Lilly spun out their business into Elanco, the #2 in animal health. There's a premium valuation on ZTS, because there's little else to get exposure to animal health. At 27x earnings, this will get hit more in a pullback.
Consumer Products
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
They've been hitting it out of the park and continues to see great topline growth. He sold it because Eli Lilly spun out their business into Elanco, the #2 in animal health. There's a premium valuation on ZTS, because there's little else to get exposure to animal health. At 27x earnings, this will get hit more in a pullback.
Consumer Products
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$93.570
Owned Owned
No

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

COMMENT
Express Scripts Inc(ESRX-Q) 

December 3, 2018

He watches this peripherally. He watches its acqusition by Cigna. It's a pharmacy beneft; they did have a mail-order pharmacy, an area that may attract political rhetoric. The deal may close at month's end--let's see how that goes.
wholesale distributors
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
He watches this peripherally. He watches its acqusition by Cigna. It's a pharmacy beneft; they did have a mail-order pharmacy, an area that may attract political rhetoric. The deal may close at month's end--let's see how that goes.
wholesale distributors
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Macdonald

Chief Inve, Harvest Portfolios G...

Price Price
$100.640
Owned Owned
Unknown

Sign up or Log in to enjoy full view of charts.

Showing 1 to 15 of 143 entries
Successfully Saved Company
Successfully Saved Company
2+
JOIN THE DISCUSSION
2 comments in the last 7 days