Mattel (MAT-Q)

Not too long ago this company was on their short list. They are in trouble. They blown up their balance sheet and the returns are terrible. Hasbro (HAS-Q) has put up a potential bid out there and it would make a lot of sense. Your best hope is that buyout. It’s too risky. Maybe they will just wait for them to go bankrupt and pick the assets. They are really not in great shape.

(A Top Pick Feb 9/17. Down 38%.) This has been a dog this year. One problem is e-commerce on big box stores. Also, they have new management that is still trying to correct their brands and turn around sales. The new CEO is a former Google executive, and is bringing in a completely different attitude and vision to the toy industry. Barbie, American Girl and Fisher-Price have great brand power, and should and could be used better in a digital world where the company can earn more money.

Consumer discretionary is just ugly out there. It really needs to hold this level. EBV+3 is $15.03, and this closed at $15.57. His model price is only $15.81. This company needs a good Christmas season.

Has a small Short on this. It scores right at the bottom of the pack on price momentum. They are also at the bottom on valuation and volatility. An expensive stock trading at 3.2X. Had a big miss on earnings recently. The balance sheet is okay. Dividend yield of 3%.

(A Top Pick Feb 9/17. Down 11%.) This was a tough retail environment. Less foot traffic to the stores has hurt sales. They’ve had to pay up for shelf space. However, he is sticking with the thesis. You are still getting a big dividend is 6.7%. Stock is trading at only 12X earnings. They own very valuable franchises.

Kids today no longer play with their previously manufactured toys. User preferences have changed. Doesn’t think the dividend is safe.

It goes in very long waves. It is about very long cycles. It will take a number of years for MAT-N to come back again.

He is buying this for some of his clients. Originally he initiated positions down around $20, saw it rise nicely into the upper $30s and it is now in the mid-$20s. The recent disappointing quarter gave this enough of a pullback to give him a good entry point. For the long-term, he sees an enduring franchise in their toy business. They are expanding the brand so that you have a doll that can handle just about any kind of social group that a child might want. A $30 price target seems reasonable to him.

The stock is off about 18% or so the last three months. There is a Barbie turn-around. Barbie grew in double digits. They paid up for shelf space during the holiday season which pressured margins. They are turning around in the right direction. They are moving to 3D printing. Once they start streamlining that process it will save tremendous amounts of costs in the future. (Analysts’ target: $31.42).

It is a disaster. Where is the catalyst for growth? Kids today are playing with toys very differently than in the past. They tend to download things to an iPad. HAS-N has been outperforming them substantially. He thinks there is more downside in MAT-Q and that the dividend is not safe.

He recently started looking at it. They have Barbie and Hot Wheels. They lost Frozen from Disney. They are now much more technology oriented with the Barbie line. Your customer changes every 4 years.

They have struggled. They are now on a downward spiral. Children are not playing with toys the way they were in the past. The dividend is attractive, but he worries about the long term prospects.