Super Micro Computer (SMCI-Q)

Tough business as components that go into product are supplied from 3rd parties. Very hard to earn profits with this fragile business model. Would not recommend investing. 

He agrees. Don't catch a falling knife now. Can't defend SMCI fundamentally. He bought this in late July but momentum flipped to the negative in August. 

Massive runway. He doesn't own it, mainly because of volatility and he prefers others. Buy in stages under $500, around $520, and then $547. Its scary chart won't happen to NVDA because SMCI has a market cap of only $32B.

Taking a hit today off of earnings. Peaked around $1200, struggled to stay above $900, and now the bottom is still falling out. Watch to see if any support around $500. Weak technically, under pressure.

With this kind of chart that moves so much, you have to think more like a trader than an investor.

It's joining the Nasdaq 100 next week and has had a great run as demand for AI chips will likely increase. It's the #1 stock in the S&P 500.

Earnings yesterday weren't bad. Stock's come down pretty aggressively today, and it's more a function that a stock that triples in 3 months and is priced to perfection is bound to come down. Likes the chip space. Too expensive, be careful. Watch for the next month, and if you miss it you miss it. Lots of other good companies to buy.

You don't want to be the one who buys super-high and then rides it all the way down. See his Top Picks.

One of the most hyped AI names, and AI is in a bubble. SMCI is a trade, not an investment. Buy Nvidia or AMD instead. You're playing with fire with SMCI.

Shares have tanked lately, because bond yields have been soaring as the market realizes that the Fed will cut rates later and perhaps less frequently. The March 8, non-farm payroll reports was lot hotter than expected, signaling a stronger employment market.

We would have preferred a positive pre-announcement over 'nothing' of course, but the lack of announcement in and of itself does not mean anything concrete. It may be bad news, or may not be. SMCI has lots of new shareholders from its issue, and lots of investors with huge embedded profits. In a panic sell off it can still be easy to sell a stock up 564% in the past year. Fundamentally wise, it would be very hard for SMCI to see a massively negative shift in revenue and earnings momentum in three months. But sentiment of course can shift much more quickly and dramatically. The move was likely hugely overdone, looking at its prospects. But as noted sentiment is more important in the short term, and the market is in a risk-off mood right now. 
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SMCI is inherently volatile and will be moreso as it approaches its earnings release on May 2 (estimated). It rose 10% on Tuesday and is up on the week (prior to Friday's open). Markets have been very weak in April and we would not necessarily attribute anything to the company itself. LOOP this week raised its target price to $1,500, and there has been no material company news. We have no reason to expect a weak quarter. To get to the prior high it needs to rise 30% or so, which we think is doable under the right conditions. A war in the Middle East would not help. We like its growth prospects and potential, but it is also a stock that could decline 30% or more if there is bad news. We are comfortable with it, but would size a position size to one's risk levels. 
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It is very difficult to perfectly trade a stock that swings $200 or 30% in a day. But we like the growth, the valuation, the financials and the industry. We would be comfortable buying. 
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SMCI guided higher again, even after doing so already very recently. It is riding a wave of spending, and remains cheap on most metrics and in comparison to peers. The party may not last forever, but it was a solid quarter with a solid outlook, and things look very good right now. The stock is up about 6% after market and is now up about 80% in 2024 alone. 
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Last year, it gained more than Nvidia, up 246%, and up 74% this year so far after it pre-announced much much better than expected sales on Jan. 18. Today, they released strong guidance for the next quarter and raised their full-year forecast substantially. Shares soared after hours today.