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Investor Insights

This summary was created by AI, based on 9 opinions in the last 12 months.

Experts have mixed opinions on Tricon Residential, with some believing in its potential for growth due to joint ventures and rental demand, while others caution about its high debt levels and the disliked real estate sector. The company is expected to scale its business through joint ventures and acquisitions, aiming to double its portfolio of single-family rental homes. Despite the risks and debt, Tricon Residential generates good cash flow and is profitable. However, it has triggered a stop at $10, resulting in a net investment loss of 12%.

Consensus
Mixed
Valuation
Fair Value
COMMENT
Tricon Residential

Takeover by Blackstone. Shareholder vote is next week. Expects deal to close next month. Still upside between trading price today and offer price. Don't expect a higher offer to come in.

property mngmnt / investment
DON'T BUY
Tricon Residential

Bid to take private by Blackstone. Trading very close to the offer price. Smidge of upside to buyout price, but not a lot. Higher bid not likely. Leave alone.

property mngmnt / investment
BUY
Tricon Residential

A favourite of his. US Sunbelt continues to see population growth. Exposure to variable rate interest costs muted earnings growth. Solving this via joint venture with institutional investors. As tenants leave, internal rent growth of 15%, quite attractive. Good setup heading into 2024.

property mngmnt / investment
WATCH
Tricon Residential

Good management team. Brookfield in involved. Valuation is a huge discount to US peers. He's watching it, but hasn't pulled the trigger. Activist investor, but no guarantees with that. Significantly more upside than down, a good investment.

property mngmnt / investment
premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
Tricon Residential
(A Top Pick Feb 14/23, Down 17%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with TCN has triggered its stop at $10.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 12%, when combined with previous recommendations. 

property mngmnt / investment
PAST TOP PICK
Tricon Residential
(A Top Pick Sep 28/22, Down 13%)

Still positive. Sector's doing well. Revised downward expectations of future growth, because higher cost of debt and growing externally with high home prices would have been punitive. Mismatch between NAV and earnings, should turn next year. 

property mngmnt / investment
HOLD
Tricon Residential

Carries a lot of debt and real estate is a disliked sector, but this has potential as a yield stock.

property mngmnt / investment
BUY
Tricon Residential
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

To assess the company's financial health, we look at its balance sheet. The company has a small cash balance of $142.4M, a decent equity position of $3.8B,  a current ratio of 0.2X (quite low), and a high net debt/EBITDA ratio of 11.9X. The company generates a good level of free cash flow, more than is needed for its dividend, however, it issues shares frequently and takes on a lot of debt. Given its real estate holdings, it has a large asset base, but also it carries a significant amount of debt. It is not without its risks, but it generates good cash flow, and is profitable. 

The company seldomly forms joint ventures to scale its business and acquiring housing, and via its expected joint ventures the company is anticipating doubling its portfolio of single-family rental homes to 50,000 over the next three years. In 2021, it entered a joint venture arrangement (SFR JV-2) with three institutional investors to acquire single-family rental homes targeting the middle market demographic in the US Sun Belt. TCN serves as the asset manager and property manager of the JV.

Despite its high debt levels, we continue to like the name here. 
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property mngmnt / investment
TOP PICK
Tricon Residential

They keep buying rentals. Rental demand will keep rising and there's a massive shortage of apartments. Immigration is rising. Shares are cheap and will rise in the coming year.

(Analysts’ price target is $13.39)
property mngmnt / investment
BUY
Tricon Residential

Great job on its portfolio, which focuses on 35-39 year olds who've chosen to rent. Likes the sector. Very wide discount to NAV, so it's a buy. High rates on high debt has prevented new asset purchases. Lower rates would be a positive, and would eventually open up the spigot to new purchases.

property mngmnt / investment
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Tricon Residential
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

TCN pays a decent dividend yield of 2.3% and has grown its dividend by ~3% annually over the past five years. 
TCN is fairly levered, and we believe in a better market will be able to demonstrate its ability for high growth rates. 
We would consider the current prices to be good entry points - the price to book multiple is 0.5X and its forward price to sales is 4.0X, the lowest across 10 years.
Due to its higher debt balances and uncertainty around the real estate market, we would not consider this to be a screaming buy yet, but we feel that in a better market, these prices will likely look attractive.   
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property mngmnt / investment
premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Tricon Residential
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate this operator of 31,000 single family homes and multi-family rental apartments in 21 markets in US and Canada as a TOP PICK.  It trades under book value, while supporting a ROE of 28%.  Cash reserves are prudently being used to continue aggressively retiring debt. We recommend trailing up the stop-loss (from $8.50) to $10.00, looking to achieve 15.00 -- upside potential over 20%. Yield 1.9%

(Analysts’ price target is $15.09)
property mngmnt / investment
BUY
Tricon Residential
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

TCN has $5.6B in debt, certainly an amount that can be considered high vs cash flow.
TCN has managed debt well. $3.8B of its debt is fixed rate. 
It has collars and caps on its floating rate debt, and its effective interest rate last year was 3.36%. 
This will increase somewhat, but because of its hedging it is less vulnerable to rates than others.  
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

property mngmnt / investment
premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Tricon Residential
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly A $3 billion market cap owner and operator of single family homes and multi-family rental apartments. Trades under book value. The company sees growth in single family home rental market and continues to expand its portfolio. Cash reserves are growing, supporting a ROE of 28% and they are aggressively retiring debt. We recommend placing a stop loss at $8.50, looking to achieve 15.50 -- upside potential over 43%. Yield 2.1% (Analysts’ price target is $15.34)
property mngmnt / investment
BUY
Tricon Residential
Home ownership is much higher now than a year ago given rates. The demo of 35-44 which rents single-family homes will double its population growth over the next 5 years vs. the rest of the population (in the U.S.). Tricon, which holds single-family homes, also benefits because is operates in the US sunbelt to where people are migrating (Dallas, Houston, Phoenix). TCN trades at a 40% discount to NAV, so it's a great opportunity now. High growth, and lease growth of 8-10%.
property mngmnt / investment
Showing 1 to 15 of 29 entries

Tricon Residential (TCN-T) Rating

Ranking : 4 out of 5

Bullish - Buy Signals / Votes : 4

Neutral - Hold Signals / Votes : 1

Bearish - Sell Signals / Votes : 1

Total Signals / Votes : 6

Stockchase rating for Tricon Residential is calculated according to the stock experts' signals. A high score means experts mostly recommend to buy the stock while a low score means experts mostly recommend to sell the stock.

Tricon Residential (TCN-T) Frequently Asked Questions

What is Tricon Residential stock symbol?

Tricon Residential is a Canadian stock, trading under the symbol TCN-T on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TCN-CT). It is usually referred to as TSX:TCN or TCN-T

Is Tricon Residential a buy or a sell?

In the last year, 6 stock analysts published opinions about TCN-T. 4 analysts recommended to BUY the stock. 1 analyst recommended to SELL the stock. The latest stock analyst recommendation is . Read the latest stock experts' ratings for Tricon Residential .

Is Tricon Residential a good investment or a top pick?

Tricon Residential was recommended as a Top Pick by on . Read the latest stock experts ratings for Tricon Residential .

Why is Tricon Residential stock dropping?

Earnings reports or recent company news can cause the stock price to drop. Read stock experts’ recommendations for help on deciding if you should buy, sell or hold the stock.

Is Tricon Residential worth watching?

6 stock analysts on Stockchase covered Tricon Residential In the last year. It is a trending stock that is worth watching.

What is Tricon Residential stock price?

On 2024-04-17, Tricon Residential (TCN-T) stock closed at a price of $15.13.