GuestLogix (GXI-T)

(A Top Pick Oct 21/15. Down 77.65%.) Sold his holdings at a loss. The business went bankrupt and went through CCAA, and recently was bought by a private equity firm. The assets were strong, but unfortunately they did a supposedly transformational acquisition and took on a lot of debt, but wasn’t able to service it.

They filed for bankruptcy. There was some funny stuff going on and it went down very, very fast. Today they closed a deal to sell OpenJaw for $37 million. Their debt situation when they went bankrupt was $25 million. There is a little bit of cushion, but he wouldn’t count on anything coming back if you own. It is probably 6 months of finagling to see if there is anything left.

(A Top Pick April 8/15. Down 88.27%.) This company makes all the payment data for the airlines. They have a great business, but it looks like the CEO, who has since left the company, has been fraudulent in what he had done and was saying.

Every time he hears of a company that has something they are going to put in planes, it never seems to work. This company over promised and under delivered. Doesn’t know if it is going to get bought or not, but you have to ask yourself after all these years, are they going to make it. Be extremely cautious on this name.

Owned this a few years ago when it had some revenue momentum and were getting lots of contracts. Sold it when it seemed like the contracts they were signing weren’t delivering the type of profitability that management had expected. The company is up for sale, but there is debt and an investigation into their financing. He would stay away.

This company just screwed up beyond all comprehension. They are now looking at alternatives. The Open Jaw acquisition is not even close to going as well as it was supposed to. He has no confidence in this company anymore. There will be lots of tax loss selling on this.

(Market Call Minute) It depends on the risk. The pieces are between 70 and 90 cents but they have a lot they have to do in the mean time.

Basically a payment processing technology, so any time you use your credit card on an airline, the majority of those terminals are this company’s. This is a case of overpromising and underdelivering. The CEO just recently resigned. After he resigned, the stock dropped about 50%. The new CEO came in and cut about $6-6.5 million of costs. This takes their EBITDA from the $6.5 million range to somewhere around $12 million on about $65 million worth of revenue. Very profitable at this point in time. Expects there will also be some revenue ramp up. Incredibly cheap.

(A Top Pick Aug 27/14. Down 32.5%.) A story that he continues to believe in. Continuing to grow their business and have had 9 consecutive quarters of increased revenues. They are profitable and have a strong cash flow. He just thinks the market was expecting more.

Have a new CEO. The previous one was long on promise and short on delivery for a very long time. This basically provides point-of-sale opportunities on airplanes, railroads, etc. Earnings estimate for 2015 is $.03 growing to $.08, more than a doubling of earnings if they can deliver, which has been a big historical IF. Against a $.77 stock price, it gives you about 9X. Assuming they can actually deliver, and odds appear to be better for that, this is tilting more towards the Buy.

Has never been a big fan of the story. They kept signing contracts, but none of those contracts turned into earnings or net income to the bottom line. Some activists have come in, but he still doesn’t love the story. They have to prove out their business model, and he is not sure that bringing these other guys in will do that. On a fundamental basis, he would not play the story.

Now they have to start making money off their user base. They had issues with shareholder distance and most of that is working its way out. It has good potential, but now it has to deliver. You want to see some money flow to the bottom line.

(A Top Pick June 20/14. Down 37.8%.) Over promised and under delivered. Had reported they had doubled their backlog, and he felt that as they delivered on that backlog, the stock would go up with that. Some of those contracts disappeared and the rest had not been nearly as profitable as some of their prior contracts. Some activists have now evolved to try and fix that. When he sees one of his positions miss their high expectations, that’s when he exits.

This is a ”long on promise and short on delivery” company, which is why the previous founder has been given the boot and why there is a "bun-fight" going on. They changed some of the management, and thinks they are making positive changes. Earnings are expected to grow by 29% this year. That gives you a PE multiple of 34X, which is pretty rich. Earnings growth forecasts for 2017 is 12% against a 17 PE. It currently ranks in the bottom 3^rd of his database. Thinks there will be a good opportunity over the next 1.5 years.

There is a lot of discussion about the airlines where they are making more money from selling you an upgraded seat, put in your baggage on, etc. This company’s business is to do the fulfilment on a plane. Once the airlines figure out there is money to be made here, the question is whether they will share this with anybody else. He doesn’t know where the profitability will come from and he thinks it is going to be a tough business.