A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Time to move to cash? He can’t just say yes, because it depends on what’s appropriate for you. What if you’re wrong, and equity markets continue to rise another 25%? Still, he’s been playing defensively for 2 years now. Can still use ETFs to get yield and grow your portfolio, but take on a lot less risk. Have some cash, avoid the bigger risks, and look to buy safe havens like gold that are selling off now.

VIX volatility based ETFs. Problem with volatility futures is you have to be nimble like a brain surgeon. Or you could lose 5-10% a month. Would recommend shifting to more defensive holdings like ZPW to preserve capital. Gives you insulation on the downside, plus some yield. For the average investor, stay away from the VIX based ETFs.

Educational segment. NAFTA and the Canadian dollar. Looks like US wants a bilateral trade agreement. Thinks there will be a deal with Mexico before November. If Canada doesn’t take a deal, that adds to uncertainty. Trump will put the screws to us, and not sure there’s a lot we can do about it. A tariff changes supply and demand, and forces up the US dollar. When Trump got elected, he talked the dollar down. But once he started tariffs, the US dollar went on a tear, which is likely to continue. For the Canadian dollar, it’s been getting weaker since 2012. Around 1.38 (or 72.5 cents) is the downside risk for the Canadian dollar, wherever NAFTA ultimately gets settled. Energy will underperform, and Canada along with it. Doesn’t see it getting much weaker than that unless Trudeau government completely botches the trade negotiations.

Oil. Still cautious on price of oil. Still thinks oil will go under $60 after the summer driving season. Demand normally peaks twice a year, the winter months, and the summer driving season. With OPEC increase in production, and US production growth, should see inventory build up in the fall months. He believes price should breach $60 in September or October.

Natural Gas. Is bullish on natural gas. Storage is not building because of strong air conditioning season in both US and Canada. May see build up of inventory before winter however expects to see price increases when winter breaks with first cold snap. He expects companies may start hedging prices this fall. Very bullish for Nat gas going into 2022 and beyond if LNG Canada gets approved. He sees us going from excess to shortage.

Will a Natural Gas plant be built? He believes it will be built. Will have a decision in November. Almost everybody in the Nat gas sector in western Canada will benefit from this project. Question remains how long it will take to build. Will be a big job creator and a big tax beneficiary for the people of BC.

The strengthening US dollar this time of year usually weakens, but recently it has popped due to Turkey. Seasonally, there's always something this time of year that happens to hit the market, in this case Turkey. We see lower volumes this time of year. The put-call ratio now is really high. He sees the US dollar weakening a bit. Conditions are ripe for markets like the TSX to keep going, but the US midterms could pressure them. We may pause in October before a rally. The conditions, in general, are good for a rally.

When will gold and silver finally go up? We're supposed to have strong seasonality starting at the end of last year, but it's been falling. Instead of watching gold price, see how the gold producers act. You have to look at the U.S. dollar. Silver is much more volatile. It's also a leading indicator for gold. If silver sees a run-up, then gold will as well. Again, for silver, look at the producers and the U.S. dollar.

Market. It has been a frustrating year for Canadian small caps this year. Canada Goose and Shopify has helped to create some new interest. Cannabis stocks are something they have invested in, but they see the valuations as stretched. TRST-T is their largest holding in the space. The Saudi issues with Canada are not expected to be that big of a concern. The market was weak on Tuesday and he thinks that was selling by the Saudi’s before the announcement went public. The success of the US market indices has emboldened President Trump to continue to press his international trade and tariff policy.

Energy Sector. They are slightly overweight into energy, holding 25% of their portfolio in that space – particularly into E&P and service companies although the pipeline companies are attracting their attention now. Canadian energy has been undervalued by the market. He thinks the recent drop in WTI prices has tested the market, but the Canadian market has held its value reasonably well. The supply/demand balance looks favorable as Iranian volumes may soon decline. He thinks $65-$80 for WTI is likely going forward and this is favorable to Canadian holdings.

Market. TSX down over 200 points from recent high. It’s been 5- 6 months of going in circles. Tariffs, NAFTA are weighing on TSX. Enough uncertainty to keep corporations from investing, and investors on the sidelines. He’s been putting more money offshore. We’re going to have this kind of market until the mid-terms in November. Saudi dispute is a tempest in a teacup, Canada is not a huge trading partner with them. They picked on us because we’re an easy target.

US or Canadian for balance of the year? More US, their economy is doing very well. Tariff uncertainty will blow over once November elections are done. Sees no loss of momentum in US economy until 2020.

Covered calls. Covered call is a worry if the market really takes off because stocks will be “called away,” and the ETF will have to buy them back at a higher price. In the meantime, it adds an additional layer of income to the dividend yield.

Mutual fund business. Difficult to fight the ETF trend and maintain your fee structure. It’s a tighter fee world. The average investor is more aware than ever of fees they’re paying. The days where you could have a quarter and be up 5-6% are gone forever. Not likely to see 7-8% interest rates in next decade.

Buying utilities when interest rates are rising.You’d want the ETF, which gives you broad exposure, like ZWU. The moment there’s a hint of interest rates rising, people rush to sell. But this assumes rates will go rise significantly. But utilities represent a nice little investment instead of fixed income. People are realizing that the sell-off was excessive.