A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

The budget was announced today. Apart from a measure to help Millennials (especially in hot markets like Toronto and Vancouver) buy their first home, the budget was market-neutral. Notley called the Alberta election for April 16. Surprisingly, she's done well to help Alberta during this oil crisis, and is likely calling the election now to take advantage of the high price of WCS. She could win. The China-US trade negotiations saw a hiccup late today and the market slid as a result. Hiccups are expected in negotiations.

The just-announced federal budget: $1.25 billion assistance from the CMHC to buy a first home. Millennials will be happy, but the assistance is creating only 25,000 new homeowners. On the deficit side, they had a bit of a windfall, so they will give it back to Canadians, which is what happens in an election year. Projected growth is 1.8% and 1.6% in 2020--these numbers will likely be wrong. We may have a recession in that time.

Market. It is rare that he focuses on Canada because it is 3% of the world, but a budget is important. Canada is underperforming dramatically so how governments invest tax dollars is important. Infrastructure is important and Trudeau has not been good at pipelines. Housing affordability is a big issue. He believes in stress tests to that any problem in an extended family does not put a home at risk. Punitive taxing helps cap escalating housing prices. Monetary policy has to be re-thought. Pushing interest rates to zero hurts the seniors/savers and helps the young people.

Real core inflation is when we have more money in our pockets and are willing to spend it. Right now we all wait for the sales. If they just started giving money to people for free the people would spend it and that would create inflation, but printing more money does not do it. Governments can't balance the books.

Gold. It is one of the bigger positions he has. It is less than 1% of the world and he has between 4 and 8% invested in it. $1350 to $1375 is where the resistance has been for years. It would take a big flight to safety for it to break out. He would sell into a rally.

Educational Segment. 12'th anniversary of his show. What was the return 12 years ago if someone bought the balanced Canadian market. The XBB-T had 3% return in bonds and 4% in stocks. After inflation it is 0 to 1 percent. He advocates for active investing.

Market. Feb 25th the market said it was too much too soon and so we are now in a consolidation correction. He thinks the US China trade dispute will be resolved. World indicators in 6 months should improve and there is about a year's worth of long term significant up moves in North American markets. Oil is trying hard to get above $60 and looks pretty good. He thinks gold will 'catch a bid'.

We're seeing a slow melt-up with supportive central banks, stimulus in China and the third year of a Presidential cycle of a President who wants high markets. Valuations are okay and earning expectations are at a low bar. Many de-risked in Q4 and are looking for a pullback to get back in, but are not seeing it, so we're grinding up slowly. We'll be up 3-5% more this year on the Dow and other indices and take out old highs. Decent gains from here....There's good and bad news for Facebook. Bad are the recent headline; the good is the move off their lows, their growth rates and pivoting from defence to offence last quarter. Their valuation is attractive. But any BIG stock is a target for politicians, like BIG pharma or BIG tech. That's a risk. But if you buy Facebook on a pullback, you'll be rewarded in 12-24 months. The Canadian budget tomorrow: likely not enough relief for oil and no lower taxes. There's growing talk about Canada becoming more competitive like the U.S.

Should a retail investor go 100% equities (with many dividends) and no bonds? This is fine IF you know yourself. Do you know what you'll do three years from now if your portfolio is down? Do this if don't need to sell stocks to finance your lifestyle. Many retail investors own 100% stocks. Also, it depends how much money you have at stake. Have a game plan and stick to it.

Higher WTI oil? It's a manipulated market; the Saudis are trying to create higher oil prices. The days of $100 are long gone. $60-70 is fine.

He has taken a contrarian approach on the market. You can't solve problems with more debts. The strategies he has taken is starting to yield some nice returns. The stock picking is working. Central banks are stuck between a rock and a hard spot. As debt rises, he believes gold and gold producers are the place to be. He likes the gold producers. This is a massive opportunity. Need to position yourself as debt levels rise.

Outlook on owning silver He would allocate about 2-3 % of portfolio to silver. A number of good companies out there that will have massive leverage. Silver is looking to have a massive break. Will be better rewarded by owning the producers versus silver itself.

Thoughts on Preferred shares of banks? Rates are flat. For the cash flow, he would play convertibles, or high dividend stocks with upside. He does not want to watch the debt covenants of the banks. Unless you are willing to hold on really long term, he is not interested.

Market. The populous governments that are getting elected don’t care about environmental issues. Environmental issues are not a priority. We are caught in this loop where people are caught up in the short term economic impacts of the green movement and the short term risks of building a green economy. We are in the middle of one of the best bull markets in history and now is the time we should be investing in the future. We should be taking this long term approach. Green technologies don’t need government support any more. Batteries are the last remaining piece of the puzzle of technology prices coming down. All it will take now is time. Trains will wear out and we will have to invest in new technology. Canada is so well positioned to take advantage of this position.

ETFs for Clean Energy like PZD- and QCLN-. There aren't any on the renewable energy index in Canada. There is the renewable and clean energy index but it has not been turned into an ETF yet. There is a mutual fund – Mackenzie global environmental equity fund. You might buy the 'F' series for the lower fees. This is the best option in Canadian dollars right now.