A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Investing smartly and wisely. Massive disruption in retail driven by Amazon, and it's spreading. The rules of investing are changing. And if you don't grasp this and take advantage, your portfolio is going to get hammered.

Market Outlook The S&P500 finally breached 3000 points. A big round number has psychological meaning. The Fed is still hinting that another rate cut may be coming. He is giving his clients the message to keep a very balanced position. Global growth is slowing and global PMI is slowing -- not a great back drop. The NY Fed Recession Indicator is getting close to predicting another recession around mid-2020. The inverted yield curve is another signal. Investors should prepare for a recession within the next 6-12 months. In the interim, you can add real estate and be defensible.

Market. Trade tensions are starting to impact the US economy. The whole global economy is slowing and they see a rate cut at the end of July. It is a precautionary cut. The jobs number was strong last month, but if you look at manufacturing data, we are not expanding at the levels we were at 6-8 months ago. Things are softening. The housing market has stayed flat. We are in an extended bull market but the growth has been very slow vs. other cycles.

Every instinct tells him that the market will come off--correct--but not until the fall. We will skate along for the rest of the summer. Equities are strong because nothing will rock the boat. Until that comes along, we will skate along. Gold needs to pass $1,400 before he buys. The TSX chart is toppy, but it has a better chance of further upside than the American exchanges. With rates staying low, all is good for stocks. He is selling at these toppy levels in order to buy back later (when the market dips), like sell half.

Market. Central Banks with firing of the central banker in Turkey. There are parallels going on here. You have always seen techniques going on with truly overt government techniques. The government lowering rates is not going to work. You have this massive debt in the world and low interest rates, so we have to rethink policies on how to stimulate in the world. He likes that Trump makes it easier for businesses to do business. When you look at the FANGs, APPL-Q is not expensive. There is a the swath of hold recommendations so there is quite a bipolar recommendation developing.

GOLD. ETF or Income Fund. GLD-N is the biggest gold ETF and is the one he uses. There is an iShares one (CGL-T) to play gold with a currency hedge. He is fine with ETFs.

Educational Segment. We are at one of those magical market points where we are at a round number. We are nearing 3000 on the S&P. The psychology of the big round number… The DOW has been around longer. The S&P-500 is about 40% of the world in equities. So it is the benchmark of the world. The top is probably in but we made a new high here. The percentage of stocks lifting the market recently is shrinking and this is a sign of weakness. It is nothing to celebrate. Don't suffer from the fear of missing out.

Market. He has a more broad-based definition of infrastructure so it includes data centers, towers and some of the transports. He excludes pipelines. His stocks have under-performed global equities in growth in 2001, 2008 and 2015. Renewable energy costs are falling and especially in a place like India. It is a driving theme there – see the space where he would talk about past picks.

Renewable Energy in India. They have a lot of coal fired emissions. It is now economic to generate by solar panels. It makes economic sense. There is no variable cost to solar. A coal plant takes almost 48 hours to start up and it adds to the operating costs. Solar is 10% cheaper in India than coal. Solar power is still only 3.6% of generation in India.

US or Canadian Utilities. He would not add simply based on valuation. They are all trading at all time highs. This has been a risk-off trade, a crowded trade, so it is not about growth. He has been reducing them in his portfolio.

Another sell-off today ever since Friday's job report, which dampened the Fed outlook of cutting interest rates. This pullback is natural. He's a long-term investor and investing in the U.S. has paid off historically. There is little growth in Europe and overseas. The U.S. will continue to grind higher. It's up 18% year to date, but don't expect that rate for the rest of 2019. He does not see a recession in the next 18 months. There's confusion in the market now--where is the market going?

Banks outlook TD is one of his largest holdings. Canadian banks hacve endured good times and bad. Banks are a core holding. He like the banks' dividend yield plus 3-5% annually going forward. PE ratios are 9-12x, which is low. There is little to worry about unless there is a severe recession.

He can't guess what the US Fed will do, but he feels we're still in a rate-rising environment and now we're in a hiccup. Today's U.S. jobs number makes it hard for the Fed to bow to the market. Always remember that liquidity remains the mother's milk of the market--it is key. Bonds are a bellweather for the wider market and we saw a big move today in the 10-year. Given all this, he expects the Fed will hold the rate and will muddle through. Later, the 10-year will rise, then the Fed will follow suit. Since 2016, the S&P has been trending up. It will likely rise into the fall until rates become restrictive. Finally, will Kawhi Leonard re-sign with the Raptors?

What is yourfav tech ind The 200-day moving average is vital, because it tells you whether there's a trend during events such as the start of a 10% correction.

Market. Thinks the economy is in pretty good shape right now and that there's a huge disconnect between the data and where all the economic figures are. There is a sense that something bad is going to happen, but looking at earnings and jobs data everything appears to be fairly strong. He doesn't know why people aren't listening to the numbers. We had a great run with the recent bull market, he would like to see some resilience in the market to get us ready for the next correction or recession. Interests rate have been low for quite a while he would like to see them going up.