A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)
COMMENT
The (U.S.) Thanksgiving Trade, now through Christmas It's the best time to have retailer exposure. He won't recommend an ETF, because some of those stocks in that basket are weak. However, look for retailers with a sound online operation or at least extensive safety measures in their stores. Of course, e-commerce has taken the world by storm during Covid. E-commerce has surged to 16% of US retail sales currently. In 2001, it was 1%. The top picks here are Amazon, Walmart, eBay, Apple and Home Depot in that order.
COMMENT
We can finally look towards a post-covid world. The market is looking through the lockdown and induced demand loss. The structural loss of US shale and capital investment moving to renewables also points to a positive outlook on crude oil. We see a tightening of supply. He is still confident we will see $50 oil early next year and $60 later that year. Energy companies have enormous free cashflow right now.
Eric NuttallUnknown
COMMENT
Future of oil. The global population in 2050 will be at 2B people. Mass EV adoption is very challenging due to economics. Just from a base metal perspective, it would consume 85% of lithium and 105% of cobalt reserves in the world. Hydrogen would displace 4% of oil demands in 2050. The notion of peak demand is a fallacy but the reality is that this will lead to peak supply which will be very real.
Eric NuttallUnknown
COMMENT
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. A balanced approach is overall better in terms of portfolio construction. Tech will probably not slow down because of the vaccine. Of course, industrial and consumer companies might do better now. Health should remain positive as well. Fourth quarter is usually good for tech. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Stockchase InsightsUnknown
COMMENT
The virus vs. the vaccine, and Biden vs. Trump. These are forces are broiling the market, which sold off today. The rising number of cases will impact markets, despite the V-shaped recovery. Covid is impacting sales. Without stimulus, it'll be a tough winter for some businesses. Also, we need a vaccine plan; so far, there are talks. Ultimately, he feels that the vaccine(s) will win, though. Trump keeps fighting the election results, which creates uncertainty for markets. Also, he suggest buying the market before Thanksgiving on Thursday. After that, seasonality points to a rally.
COMMENT
The last few weeks have been very eventful. There has been a decline in US political uncertainty and promising results from vaccines. There has been targeted lockdowns across the world as well. Looking further out, vaccines are coming and this will help the economy return to something like normal. Logistics will still be a problem short term.
Stan WongUnknown
COMMENT
Tech and communication, and consumer stocks remain the heaviest sectors invested. Cyclical stocks have done well too. He is starting to add back to normal stocks into the portfolio. Still overweighting the tech space.
Stan WongUnknown
COMMENT
Is there too much euphoria over the potential vaccines? Market was already in a transition away from momentum stocks. Starting to move into value. The Pfizer announcement created a big jump in stocks that were already starting to move. Stocks aren't necessarily too much ahead of themselves, but we're going to have a rough patch or two before it's all done.
COMMENT
Longer term, sobering thoughts on US debt to GDP? The long downtrend of US GDP dropped in 2008 to less than $3 of debt to $1 of GDP for the first time, and we had the worst recession since the Great Depression. It held tight at the 3.5:1 ratio until we got to 2020. Now we're back in the same condition as 2008, and along came Covid. GDP plunged as indebtedness went up. Can't tell if it's a Covid effect or something else. The economy won't bounce back in 2021 the way people are expecting. Covid isn't over yet, despite the vaccines.
COMMENT
Time to take profits from gold and silver? No. Outlook for inflation is perking up. Historically, upwards pressure on interest rates plus upwards pressure on commodity prices. Stay the course in the golds, and add some of the other commodities including copper. Not the time to bail, just because they're in a temporary hiatus.
BUY
Canadian banks vs. BAC Prefers the Canadian banks. They over-reserved on Covid losses, so there should be some earnings recovery in 2021-22. This hasn't happened with the US banks. Regulators still hate the US banks because of 2008. Canada is a cleaner environment for banks, and any of them would do.
COMMENT
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Investors should always act as though a 10% correction may happen tomorrow. These corrections are not uncommon over the course of a year. However, 5i remains optimistic. The next 2-3 months may be sluggish but with the vaccine, we may be turning a corner soon. There is also pent up demand and higher levels of savings looking for higher rates. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Stockchase InsightsUnknown
COMMENT
This two-day pullback is a golden buying opportunity. We finally broke the tyranny of the index funds--ETF buyers. This year, new younger buyers flooded the market; they aren't trading the S&P 500. Rather they invest in individual stocks to make money in commission-free trading. He doesn't like sector ETFs, because you're owning the good with the bad.
COMMENT
The markets are way up, but investors are climbing a wall of worry, scared of many things. He himself is an optimist, because the market has always gone up the last century. It pays to be an optimist. If you're not, don't get into stocks. Long-term, there'll be higher taxes, but short-term people will get into stores and restaurants again. There's a light at the end of the tunnel and we'll see more good vaccine news. People have been locked in their homes for months and will get out. At the same time, governments have thrown a lot of money into the system. The Fed will raise interest rates, but very gradually over time.
COMMENT
The effect of China signing the RECP pact with other Asian nations--will that push Canadian raw materials out of the picture? https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/15/business/asia-pacific-rcep-trade-deal/ It's a big picture question. Oil companies here have been decimated. These companies have to shift to renewables or find other export markets. If not, we'll become a domesticated market which will lead to lower prices, profits, etc. He doesn't see an easy way out of this.
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