A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

The EIA forecasts peak US oil and gas supply in the coming year. Trump wants flat/lower oil prices until the US Midterm Elections, OPEC+ has been overpumping, while there is peak supply in the US. So, short-term oil prices stay weak. Longer term, the strategic petroleum reserve won't be replenished until after the Midterms. The XEG and XLE ETFs are both returning 7% annually historically, including 60% of that return being dividends. Since oil's peak following the 2008 recession/collapse, there's been zero capital gain (all dividends). There's no growth in oil. In coming years: buy ENCC (Canadian focus) and ZWEN (global focus), both using covered calls. During 5-10% corrections: XEG and XLE.

Extreme overvaluation

Bubbles can occur when market valuations far exceed historical norms relative to fundamentals such as earnings or book value. Common metrics include the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio or the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio; when these remain well above long-run averages, it often signals excessive optimism. Many pundits think the market is overvalued right now, but we don’t think it is, at least to the same degree as many think. Earnings are rising and interest rates are falling. This should allow for higher valuations. The S&P 500 is at a forward price-to-earnings of 23 times right now. Certainly not low on first blush (it was as low as five times in the early 1900s), but if we look at data past 1990 the average has been 24 to 25 times. Most would say it is “fairly priced” not “bubble priced.” The index price/earnings multiple has been as high as 130 (in the dark days of the financial crisis, when companies were hardly making any money, if at all).

Part of the lesson being taught right now is that for the last 2-3 years we've really had a momentum market. Now it's being tested. Now that we're out of Q3 earnings season, investors are wondering what's going to happen next?

Usually when you have a company that's a large market-cap component of the S&P 500, chances are that it will tend to slide a little bit. 

We've had a topsy-turvy year because in September the market usually falls, but we rallied. Now we're into November when we normally rally, but we're starting to see a selloff right now. It's tax-loss selling season as well, so there could be a lot of portfolio managers selling losers and eventually getting back in and buying the winners.

Today the market's up 0.5-1%, so it's holding steady right now. But it's almost as though every news item that comes out these days is either going to push the market higher or push it lower. 

Right now the focus is on the Federal Reserve and whether they're going to cut interest rates in December. Everybody's sort of sitting on the fence right now, just waiting.

It would definitely put a shadow over stocks. The expectation is for a cut. Growth and momentum stocks need interest rates to continue to fall for them to see their profitability rise. So it's not just the tech stocks, but also the small caps.

The small cap stocks are more interesting right now because the Russell 2000 index hasn't really performed much this year. That's because small businesses in the US are taking it on the chin because of tariffs. If you're a small business and seeing a 40% tariff attached to all the things you import to create a final product, you have 2 choices. Either increase prices to customers for fear that revenues will fall, or eat the tariffs yourself and watch your free cashflow fall. If they have to borrow money to grow, the banks may not lend it to them.

Think of a grid. The AI hyperscalers are at the top. That's MSFT, AMZN, and GOOG. They're going to lead everything going forward with the fast computation.

The next level would be the chips.

Third level is infrastructure. Think FIX, TIH, or STN.

Utilities are next, as you're going to need energy to run these data centres.

Financials will do the funding.

If the US cuts rates and the USD falls, something like nuclear power would benefit. You might then be at the beginning of a bull market for resource companies.

Finally, you have the serial acquirers. Small-cap companies that are out there making acquisitions where AI can't impact their future. They're getting mom & pop companies much cheaper than if they were publicly listed. These companies are growing the business by 2.5% a year, and then making acquisitions in the 2-3% range. This gives you 4-6% revenue growth when global economic growth is in the 1.5-2.5% range.

Investors need to look at their portfolios and have at least 1 company in each of these 7 different categories.

Probably around 10-15%. We're in the middle of a semi-correction right now. So he might pull the trigger to add new names or more shares of what they already own.

You bet. That's one of the biggest fears right now -- every cycle you're going to see something that falls by the wayside because it can't compete anymore with the new technology.

Manufacturers should be OK. Biggest issues have been in healthcare, software, and consumer products. 

Not necessarily AI to blame, but other trends are going on. Think of PEP -- people are taking weight-loss drugs, going no-carbs, or not eating ultra-processed foods. Demand for snacks and sugary drinks is starting to ebb. FDA is set to get rid of red dyes and such. At the same time, shrinkflation is taking hold. Be leery.

Extreme overvaluation

Bubbles can occur when market valuations far exceed historical norms relative to fundamentals such as earnings or book value. Common metrics include the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio or the cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) ratio; when these remain well above long-run averages, it often signals excessive optimism. Many pundits think the market is overvalued right now, but we don’t think it is, at least to the same degree as many think. Earnings are rising and interest rates are falling. This should allow for higher valuations. The S&P 500 is at a forward price-to-earnings of 23 times right now. Certainly not low on first blush (it was as low as five times in the early 1900s), but if we look at data past 1990 the average has been 24 to 25 times. Most would say it is “fairly priced” not “bubble priced.” The index price/earnings multiple has been as high as 130 (in the dark days of the financial crisis, when companies were hardly making any money, if at all).

Over the past year he's steadily taken down his tech exposure, now only about an 8% weighting. He does own NVDA and GOOG. 

There are parts of the market that have really started to perform, giving him an opportunity to diversify. And not just in the US. In fact, his firm's US weighting is probably as low as it's been in 5 years. His international exposure is now much higher.

Over the last couple of months the market has been narrowing in the US, meaning that fewer and fewer stocks are participating. That's not generally a super-healthy thing.

Sector weights in international markets are quite different than the S&P. For example, 31% of the MSCI All-World Ex-US Index is in financials. Large banks are doing well everywhere in the world. We have low short-term rates and sticky, high long-term rates. The opportunity to make a margin is pretty darn good.

Banks are pretty inexpensive, such as SAN. It trades at 9x PE compared to MS at 16x. SAN has a great balance sheet and good growth rate.

There's been an opportunity to buy some lower-valuation companies in sectors that aren't as over-owned. He's in Japan, Latin America, and the EU. About 20% of an average portfolio at his shop is international (ex-US). This has resulted in outperforming the US stock market for the last 18 months.

Start your analysis with the market. For example, NASDAQ had 87% of companies in an uptrend in July, now that's only 36%. Breadth has been narrowing. That's why he's been reducing exposure for some time now.

Then look at the sector. The software sector has been relatively underperforming for a couple of months, trading below key support levels. Remember that 70% of your return is being in the right neighbourhood, and this sector's trading below the 200-day MA.

Now you're down at the company level. Don't buy one of the weakest stocks in a weak sector. Instead, look for the strongest sectors on a relative basis and buy the leading stocks within the group. Stocks in a sector tend to move together like a school of fish, but there will be stronger ones and weaker ones. Start with the strongest company you can find because you have to assume that conditions may get more difficult. You want the companies with the best balance sheets, income statements, growth opportunities, and long-life reserves.

International investors are recognizing that Canada may be getting a little more friendly towards investing in energy. Shale companies in the US are having difficulty with decline rates. Canadian long-life assets are starting to trade at a premium, as they have predictable long-term production. These companies offer great opportunities for dividend growth as they pay down debt and have excess cashflow.

Interesting that these long-life producers are behaving as well as they are with oil behaving as poorly as it is. That's generally a pretty good tell. In commodities, you want to look for areas where the stocks are behaving well but the commodity is a little less positive. It tells you what might be coming. 

He takes his cue from the market. When the market's doing something other than what you might be expecting, you need to pay attention.

He has a pretty significant energy weighting, predominantly in oil. See his Top Picks.

Unemployment data has not been overly rosy. Housing market is weak, and that area is what helped fuel consumer spending the last number of years. Be careful on the consumer right now.

His firm is carrying about 15-25% cash in portfolios right now, certainly a shift from the last couple of years. He'd be putting together a farm team of what he'd like to own. What's bucking the trend? Despite all these worries, what's performing better?