A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

He's not concerned. The view is that Trump's going to go in and oil companies are going to run back into the country, ignoring that they had their assets expropriated twice in the past. Oil is in the $50s, yet companies are all of a sudden going to commit all this capex. His team has been contacting those in the industry, and there's almost no appetite to go back into that country anytime soon.

There are safety concerns. One estimate is that the pipeline network needs "only" $80B to resurrect it. There's been zero investment in the space. Anything beyond an increase of 200k barrels a day will be measured in 4-9 years.

Venezuela self-reports that it's the #1 holder of oil reserves in the world. Two leaders ago, they decided to include in the numbers a lot of the super-expensive, ultra-heavy, super-low-quality crud. So they vaulted from #8 or #9 to #1. Unquestionably, they have a lot of oil. Canada is roughly #3, which might be understated. The situation reminds him of the selloff in oil on the false narrative of a meaningful increase in supply from "drill, baby, drill" -- both events instigated by Trump.

Remains very bullish on nat gas, February price up 50% in last 2 days (biggest increase in a decade). Cold weather plus freezing rain means that some wells in Texas actually freeze and gas can't flow. Less supply, massively increasing demand. But he has the average price for 2026 at $3.90, and uses $4 as a floor.

He remains bullish on natural gas, but not because of the weather (despite the cold forecast). There's a structural increase in demand largely from LNG. The US will be growing LNG exports over the next 4 years. Canada's exports will also increase. At the same time, massive increase in power demand from hyperscalers and data centres.

So, what do you want to own? His firm's strong preference is for US natural gas exposure. Why the US over Canada? The closer you are to where the demand is growing, the better price you get. At the end of the pipe, Canada has limited incremental egress, and so our gas sells at a discount.

The US names are all trading at a discount to Canadian peers. Each of the Top Pick names is about a 10% weight in his fund.

Tech saw a pullback last November over investor concerns of return on investment by these companies. However, we're in the data centre building phase now--look at the performance of GE Vernova and Vertiv, for example. AI adoption is coming but this year you can earn returns on stocks focused on the build component. Look for bottlenecks in the overall AI complex. For instance, storage; Sandisk and its peers are soaring. Where is the demand/supply mismatch? The adopters of AI, like healthcare will accelerate in the second half of this year.

The largest headwind today is geo-political. Trump is now using tariffs as a threat to those who oppose his takeover of Greenland. This is creating volatility in Europe. However he is aware of the markets and the US economy.The Mexican, Canadian and US trade agreement comes up for review in July. It is vital and many corporations want to see it stay. Mark Carney is encouraging infrastructure spending and opening up trade links with countries other than the US, including China. This should stimulate business activity in Canada.

The question was on the debt of the US. and if they're using the right type of stimulus. The debt in GDP in the US is increasing but this is happening all over the world. There is concern longer term but debt provides positive short term stimulus with incentives to business. Watch for the 10 year treasury yields going up and bond yields rising since this would be a headwind for stocks.

The question was about the potential still being there for gold to rise. No one knows where gold is going. It has had a huge run but she wouldn't chase it. Because of its momentum wait for at least a 10% drop before buying. Producers are affected  by the direction in the price of gold. She doesn't own gold in her portfolio.

So far so good in 2026. Markets will be focussed on the geopolitical until tech earnings arrive. There are fiscal tailwinds, but should support earnings growth this year. Some AI names and Mag 7 have been underperforming. Geopolitics usually don't impact markets, but tend to with energy, such as the chance of the US attacking Iran. Gold can go higher from here, but gold terrifies him. A correction could be violent.

If the court strikes them down, Trump could use another excuse than "emergency". A ruling would be a hornet's nest. Does the US give back all the money collected? Doesn't think a ruling would have a meaningful impact. Hedge: it's not a tradeable event.

There's more value in international than domestic banks. In a Canadian taxable account, you need a Canadian bank stock.

A rule of thumb is to sell 50% if your position has doubled, then sell 50% if it doubles again.

Historically, when gold has led and have stocks have declined typically happens after stocks have seen extremes. There's a case to be made for gold to keep rising and outperform stocks by up to 50% for 5-10 years, based on historical data. Higher gold reflects a loss of confidence in governments controlling their spending. He doesn't expect governments to, so gold will go higher, though in a bumpy ride. He's nervously bullish. He will wait for a correction to buy.

It's a very logical step for the federal government to go to China, and to other countries, and sign those agreements. They have to forge their own path, stand on their own feet, and form agreements with other countries. They shouldn't be held hostage to ongoing negotiations with one trade partner.

Absolutely. Negotiations will take place later this year, and you never know if they'll be postponed again or not. If there's no agreement, it could get extended. We'll have to see what happens.

What he's seeing is a firm commitment to build Canada. There's a lot of excitement and a real investable theme. At some point real money will start flowing, and this will translate into operating results for companies.

Build Canada is a big theme, and he thinks it's here to stay. Given what's happening on geopolitics globally, we've seen what happened in Venezuela and the rhetoric around Greenland, and potentially the Panama Canal and Cuba. Look at the Monroe Doctrine, its history, and what it means. The US administration has been very active and very clear in communicating what their vision is for the future -- dominance of the Western Hemisphere. The playbook is pretty clear.

Against that reality, we have to really invest in national defense and domestic priorities. We have to stand firm so we can maintain our position against pressure from the US in the years to come.

It's true that energy, infrastructure, and defense are all interesting industries. However, Canada should count its blessings. We have immense natural resources that we should take advantage of, but we shouldn't build a whole economy around natural resources. We have to take the proceeds from that and invest in high technology and aerospace as well.