A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Utilities to combat inflation. They have a lot of capital and if the cost of capital goes up, then their margins go down. The energy sector for now is very positive. If you think inflation pressures will build and you want fixed income type exposure, then you can look at gold and inflation-linked bonds. Utilities in general will not be a good hedge against inflation.

Educational Segment. The world is going green and there is a tremendous down trend in investment in the energy sector. There is ESG, US shale dropping off and Canadian production being stymied that are affecting oil right now. The futures markets are at $65-$75 for the next year or so. If you extend this out to a decade from now, prices are anchored in the $50s. Prices were depressed in 2020 and forward prices are still depressed. There is short-run supply and demand. It is bullish for oil as a trade. The prices could go up to $100 range. However, it is not investable. Only for trade.

Market. There are two camps when it comes to market opinion. The first camp feels that the market might be a bit high and a correction may happen but otherwise it is upwards from here as the economy opens up. The other camp believes that a savage bear market lies ahead of us as valuations are so high. Once a bear market gets under way it would be hard to stop. He feels that a lot of investors have lost tack of how expensive the S&P actually is in price to book terms. Consider that the S&P is just 15% away from the same peak in price to book terms that it reached in 2000. After a 5000 level, he would be surprised if it can rise. He thinks the FED cannot afford another market sell off.

Crude Target. The cure for low energy prices is low energy prices. Oil had low prices. There is now a shortage of oil. It has broken out of a long term downtrend. He sees the possibility of triple digit prices. Draw down has pushed oil prices down.

Second half of the year. We have had a great run in the market. We have gone from a scary situation last March to getting out of the pandemic. Many companies have thrives through this year as well. Markets have done well and over the last year, the best strategy was to buy companies that were growing, irrespective of whether it was making money. This year will be different where stock picking will be very important.

Growth versus value. Usually putting stocks into two categories is an oversimplification. Has done extremely well by picking stocks that were overlooked by the market and not getting much attention. Focusing on the fundamentals, such as free cashflow and valuation, is a much better way to evaluate stocks.

Is there room to run in the 2nd half of 2021? Any summer sees leisure and travel stocks benefiting, plus we're reopening after Covid-19 so masks are coming off as theme parks are opening up, for example. We'll be hitting the roads, which will revive oil prices and energy stocks. Cryptos had such a huge run, but the price has somewhat stabilized now. They may get a second life and go to the moon in the second half of 2021. We've seen huge tech innovations and investors have become savvier. This isn't your granddad's stock market. We haven't seen a 10% correction since Covid hit. The recession we had saw the fastest recovery in history. Risks are inflation rising again; we could see a surprise--or signal of a--rate hike. There are also cybersecurity risks from abroad. Remember that August is seasonally a slow month. We've seen six months of unemployment gains, which could trigger the Fed to change monetary policy. All this could effect the second half of 2021.

Is there still room to run in the 2nd half of 2021? In coming months, she expects the cyclicals to resume leadership because US 10-year to move higher. Also, excess consumer savings will boost earnings in cyclicals. She guesses surprises to the upside to be significant. She is bullish. She likes materials, driven by global economic recovery, like oil. Valuations of both classes remain attractive despite the stock run-up. She also likes banks which have passed the stress test and buyback shares. She sees the 10-year yield steepening, which favours banks.

No show today, due to the Canada Day holiday.

Markets in the summer. We'll see if sell in May and go away comes true this year. Optimistic on the economic outlook. Canada has lagged the broader reopening, but now starting to see things open up. Consumers have high savings rates and want to get out and spend money. Equity markets already have the good news built in. More of a stock-pickers market, not everything is going to work. More challenging to make money going forward. Investors will have to be more selective.

Gambling mentality. Speculative activity is one of the risks to the outlook. Currently contained to areas such as SPACs, crypto and hot IPOs. Meme stocks such as AMC are concerning. These times of speculative activity usually don't end well and someone is left holding the bag. Investors need to be wary. Ask what's driving a stock, fundamentals or speculation?

US homebuilders. US homebuilders have done very well, with increased demand, housing starts and prices. Not clear how persistent the trend to move out of the cities will be. But overall, the trend to more single family homes will play well for them. If there were a pullback, he'd look at companies like TOL and LEN.