A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Which segments of tech would rally the most? High growth, not-so-profitable software stocks are going to have to come around. The hardware side should lead the charge, which will drag the software. Difficult when you look at semiconductors, as they're going through cyclicality with a rebalancing of supply/demand. Doesn't think semis will lead the charge.

Gold data from technical analyst Larry Williams and the Gold Continuous Contract Futures (GCCF) chart He believes in holding at least some gold. Hold it as a hedge. But gold is flat for the year and hasn't been acting as a hedge against inflation. Since March, prices have been hammered. An ugly downturn. But don't give up on gold. William's data shows that when small gold speculators get too bullish, then gold prices are near the top. But when they get bearish, gold is bottoming. The latest data says that small specs are net long 92,690 contracts for gold, their smallest long position since May 2019, before gold got a major boost. Last March in gold's most recent peak, those contracts were long 290,000--their largest net long position in 4 years. They are on the wrong side of the trade. Williams says do the exact opposite of those small speculators. In the last 9 years whenever the net long gold position has been this low, the actual metal has rallied. The best selling positions happened when those speculators had large long positions. Gold has been undervalued because the USD has been so. Gold vs. oil: gold responds to the price of oil more than any other inflationary indicator, including the CPI. Now is the time to buy gold, because gold is ready to rally.

It's nuts that when oil prices fell today that tech and retailer stocks surged, like Meta which went up 5.37%. So did Apple, Amazon and Alphabet. Machines at brokerage arms are programmed to buy tech and retail anytime crude oil does down. Crazy!

Inflation is not going anyway anytime soon. The US Fed needs to keep its foot on the gas. We're already in a recession. There is more risk in the market than at any time since Covid hit. Play defence for the next little while. Don't stand pat--do something. trim exposure to equities. Take profits. Shift from 60/40 stocks/bonds to 50/50. We still have rate hikes to come, so things will get worse before they get better.

value ETF He likes value, which outperforms growth historically. Invest in Canada, US or world? Look at Blackrock or Vanguard. Plain-vanilla ETFs that are cheap and broadly diversified are best.

Hedge or non-hedged ETF? It's a personal question. Any hedged security should have large volumes. If you have a long-term horizon, like 20-30 years who will now what will happen to a currency in that span and the hedge costs 5-10 basis points, it isn't expensive, but you could save that in that long span.

inverted yield curve The difference between the 2-year and 10-year bond yields is -30 basis points which is wide and it's getting wider. Yield curves predict recessions which he expects. We should be concerned.

top pick CASH as a top pick. He sees interest rates going up and clouds on the horizon. Play defence, preserve cash. Can own money market funds or GICs, depending on how long you want to be locked in.

The U.S. 10-year yield has fallen from 3.45% to 2.57%. The curve gets more inverted by the day; history indicates a recession, bot how severe will it be? There was weaker data out of China and the ISM today. We need to see more U.S. economic weakness for the Fed to pause--which he doesn't expect nor want.

He read hawkish tones in last week's Fed announcement, not dovish. Even if the next CPI comes down, it's still historically higher. The market will go lower. The effects of the Fed hikes won't be felt for some time, many months.

Last week, the Fed was hawkish and they're nowhere near done--inflation has to fall a lot. The Fed will hike more. Housing has cooled and other sectors will. She isn't buying this rally. There's more pain to come. For some stocks, the bottom is in, but not the overall market.

Not surprised at strong results from Apple & Amazon (free cash flow machines). Tide is going out in economy with rising interest rates. Unprofitable companies will be exposed. Profitable companies can weather economic contraction.

Bullish on energy prices with conflict in Ukraine, under supply in production & increased demand. Recent correction in energy prices unfounded. Concerned that shortage of investment in energy sector is setting up for energy crisis(extremely high prices). Currently has zero capital in Canadian banks (concerned about loan losses with rising interest rates).

It comes down to execution, and depends on the company. Some companies like Apple and Microsoft executed, not Intel. Stay cautious. We still have high inflation. Market expectations were bad going into earnings season. We're still in uncharted waters.

She isn't surprised with strong earnings from oil companies today. Oil will be the bright spot in earnings this year. The supply/demand imbalance will keep inflation high and continue.