A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

The upcoming US Fed announcement on interest rates A 75-point hike will restore a little confidence in the US Fed. Now, there is no confidence as the market is down over 20%. That's a decimation of sentiment. We need to see other prices, including oil and housing prices, to come down. We need to see the effect of the hike on commodities and food over the next few months before we restore our faith in the Fed.

Interest rates will go up, perhaps by 75 points. Positive is that employment is strong in the US and Canada. The indices are trading at historic averages after entering a bear market (in the US). She's looking for earnings revisions going down. The US consumer is still spending--so far so good. During Covid, consumers accumulated savings. Now, we're seeing people travel, which is positive. This could allow the US Fed engineer a soft landing.

Today's sell-off indicates a loss of faith in the Fed who wrongly called inflation "transitory." Would the market view a 75-basis point hike by the US Fed on Wednesday as panic? No. In fact, the market would be relieved, welcoming it to fight inflation.

Let's just have a string of bad days (or weeks), flush it out, get it over with and call it a bottom. In some ways, she welcomes today's harsh sell-off though today (and last Friday) were terrible sessions for markets. There's still further down to go. What is the right market multiple to bounce off?

Bitcoin is crashing Some investors are losing a lot of money, confident that cryptos were immune to inflation--that is not true. Also, there isn't a long history of cryptos to reflect on.

Semis still face a lot of headwinds. The semis signal cyclicality in the market; they are guilty by association in the market. She prefers cloud software.

Cash as a top pick Would sit on the sidelines leading up to Wednesday's Fed meeting. The second half of the year could be better than the first, but later in the year.

Last Thursday was pivotal and the sell-off since then amounts to a profound lack of confidence in the US Fed who are behind the curve. Even a 100-basis point hike (the Fed meets tomorrow and Wednesday) won't do anything. Markets have no confidence as liquidity is being removed. Crypto excesses are being removed and real estate is next. Let this malaise unwind. Time is the only solution.

Bitcoin has plunged to $23,000. Blockchain technology will eventually work, but that doesn't mean Bitcoin will reach $100,000, though $40,000 is reasonble. The two don't correlate.

Friday's inflation figures are on everybody's mind. Also saw worst University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading ever. Markets are very concerned. We got a little bit overstretched in valuations over the years and what the Feds say this week will be critical to see where this correction stops.

The NASDAQ should continue to fall in stages by 80% from its peak. Another 25% drop isn't going to be enough. An overall bear market has recently been confirmed in the U.S. A bear market is a time for re-evaluation of stock values. There are risks and opportunities.

Today's hot CPI data Today's CPI doesn't jive with other data, like industrial production numbers - car-making numbers are up - but are not driving priecs lower. Food is increasing more than 10% YOY, the highest since 1981, which strongly impacts all consumers and is troubling. If you are a long-term investor, this is the time to pick up companies with strong fundamentals; you will ultimately be rewarded.

Hot inflation data is triggering today's slide People focusing on earnings are missing the point. Earnings estimates are not falling because everything costs more. Consumers are not stupid; they're pissed off. Consumers have no choice but to spend more! This feels like a recession to them, even though they can find jobs. Consumer confidence, says a new survey, hasn't been this low since the mid-1970s. That said, don't sell stocks. Use stop losses, though. To long-term investors, remember that there are periods where the market doesn't reward fundamentals. And be diversified.

Hot inflation data is triggering a steep sell-off today Despite today's sell-off, he remains bullish for 2023. Yes, the market is lousy now and will likely go lower but not much, but don't sell. There's a lot of recession talk now, but show me an economic decline--people are finding jobs and retail sales are still growing. The economy remains strong. He still targets the S&P at 4,896 by year's end. How? We'll get all this bad news out in this and the next quarter. He doesn't see earnings estimates coming down.

Is positive on North American stocks, despite market challenges (rising inflation & rate increases). Adjustment to higher interest rates being priced into the market the past few months. Unsure whether economic downturn will cure high inflation rates (should be clearer within next month or two). Upcoming (Q2) earnings will provide clarity on economy. Looking for buying opportunities given current price of stocks.