A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

He has no opinion as to where these will be in a year, as he doesn't think in timeframes like that. However over a 5-year timeframe, he thinks gold and silver go much higher. This would be "unfortunate", as the rise would mean difficulties in other parts of his portfolio.

Anyone who doesn't own at least a bit of physical gold in their portfolio is making a mistake. Gold has traditionally done well when there are threats to purchasing power in fiat currencies. Ongoing debt and deficits of all governments make those fears legitimate.

In his experience, precious metals markets have to be led by gold. At some point, once there's been enough momentum in gold, the leadership changes from gold to silver.
 
The bulk of his precious metals portfolio is in gold, for liquidity and insurance purposes. The silver part of his portfolio is purely speculative.

Difficult to understand the silver market because so much silver is produced as a by-product of other metals. So getting the supply right for silver is hard. When silver runs, it makes up for lots of past sins. You won't need him to tell you, because you're going to see it on the chart in spectacularly dramatic fashion.

His problem is that he never knows why it runs, just that it does. The silver part of his portfolio is purely speculative.

Loves stuff that's hated. We're coming to the phase where lithium is going to be hated, if RIO doesn't buy up the entire lithium industry. Exploration has probably found 150 lithium deposits worldwide, and maybe 10 will make it to production. So he's looking at lithium for 2025-2026.

Canadian Companies & Equity Capital: Struggling companies investors should stay away from

Negative book value could be a concern for companies if they are unprofitable, cyclical, possessing minimum pricing power and highly capital-intensive. The situation could get worse if these businesses produced losses and secular headwinds in the business model. Consequently, negative equity capital is just a result of the cumulative losses over the years. These companies are the ones investors should stay away from at all costs, no matter how cheaply they trade.

Overall, accounting figures may confuse investors. At the end of the day, what matters to investors is the underlying fundamentals of the business, which would dictate investment results over time. 
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The market needs to get past the upcoming Fed meeting and rate announcement before it can welcome the Santa Claus rally.

Exactly. We're leaving 2024 the same way it's been for most of the year. Canadian economic environment still tepid. The US has a pretty robust economic scenario for 2025 at least.

Canada underperforming the States explains our more aggressive monetary shifting than the Fed. That story will remain in place for at least the first part of 2025. And we're now layering in uncertainty surrounding tariffs and other policies coming out of Washington.

May be a little rich, but he wouldn't go so far as to say that everything is uber-expensive right now. There are pockets of value within the US market. 

Even in the tech sector with stocks like NVDA, most people would say it's extremely expensive given its run in 2024. If you think we're going to have continued growth in 2025, tax cuts and easier regulations, those stocks probably aren't as expensive as people think.

They can. Looking at the performance for 2024, a lot of large-cap names have not done well yet we still see continued strength. If the outlook for energy next year remains solid, the TSX can continue to move higher. If you still think gold has some room to go, that's going to be favourable. If financials can get more coordinated in terms of continued growth, that'll be good.

We can do better, but we're still facing down this uncertainty on tariffs. That could derail a lot of the momentum we have right now.

He's been favouring US stocks all through the year, and he's continuing to move that way heading into 2025. At least for the first year. Beyond 2025, if we see tariffs or US policies that are potentially destabilizing to the US outlook, then he'll rethink that strategy.

But right now, makes sense to tilt your portfolio more to the US and less in Canada.

If the fundamentals look solid going forward, don't worry too much about trying to time the entry.

He's using CDRs more extensively in his portfolio, as he likes the hedged nature of the investment. This aligns with his view that we're trading close to the lows on the CAD, and going forward he wants to protect that currency exposure. They're also liquid, and you can buy them in Toronto.

Remember that you're going to be paid dividends and there will be withholding tax, as they aren't Canadian-company dividends. From an estate perspective, these are counted as US-side assets.

Spinoffs come in all varieties. They can be to private equity companies or public. Or the parent company can still retain ownership. In each situation, you have to reach out to the investor relations department to find out what's going to happen as a shareholder vis-a-vis the spun-off company. Tax treatment is a question to ask about. If you're a shareholder, that department is required to reply to your questions. Also consider consulting with your financial adviser.

All this is over and above whether you think the spinoff is actually going to work to extract value. Are the fundamentals or valuation better than the parent? 

Looking at energy demand right now, it's unfathomable that we're going to meet that demand through solar and wind. You can't flip the switch on coal production to something cleaner without looking at nat gas. You can bring nuclear into the conversation as well. 

But nat gas and LNG is where we're going to see most of the pickup in demand in 2025 and going into 2026.

Hopefully, not too old fashioned. He's a fundamental, bottom-up stock picker. Purposely tries to be different from the main indices in Canada. He has an all-cap strategy -- so small, mid-caps, and large. Very different industry weightings than the TSX. Tends not to invest in oil/gas, mining, or resource sectors. Keeps fairly low weightings in the banks, though he likes them.

All so he and his team can offer something different, which they've been doing for 18 years. They've beat the TSX over that time, with an annual compound rate of return of over 10%. The TSX has been just over 7%.

His other specialty is Canadian corporate bonds in fixed income. Very credit-driven. Has also trounced the bond index, with an annual compound rate of almost 6.5%, compared to the bond index at just over 3%.

AUM are just over $300M, and he has 3 funds.