A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT

Markets. We are seeing an appetite for yield in these markets and this is manifesting itself in a whole host of ways, most obviously in the sovereign debt market where 7 to 8 countries have negative yields. This reflects a fear on the part of large institutions who are looking to park very large amounts of capital into something that is reasonably safe and liquid. High dividend paying stocks have done fantastically well and he expects that will continue to be the case. High yield debt and investment grade corporate bonds will continue to do very well.

COMMENT

Where are you looking for growth in this economic cycle? He can't point to one area of low hanging fruit in the equity market where growth outlook is absolutely certain, valuations are fantastic and dividend yields are high. You have to look at things on a company by company basis. Look at the organic growth rate of individual companies, which is a pretty powerful testament to the quality.

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Markets: The ECB has been disappointing us for 4 years so he didn’t know what the market was expecting. He suspects they will not do anything that will impress the markets. Earnings have been OK. It is a news driven market and sometimes it makes you pull your hair out. He wants to look for fundamental value. If a stock is weak people kick it out of their portfolio. He would only buy with the right name, valuation, etc. He tiptoes around the minefields.

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Markets. Very dangerous to make an assumption that just because the market is not doing well and the economy is not doing well that the markets go hand-in-hand with the economy. We are seeing record corporate profits and yet a weakish economy. When all the bad news is factored into the market, there is a chance for it to go higher.

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Markets: Companies with good earnings are moving up while others move down. People are fatigues with all this macro news. Junior resource companies that have done well have done well in valuation. When market gets tough you to back to the balance sheet and the fundamentals.

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Markets. Kind of dreary. World’s problems are all still there plus a few additional quite serious ones. Always cynical about money being thrown at problems. Looking forward to November when the US elections start getting into gear.

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Market. Pretty ambivalent about the market at this time. There are a lot of things going on, but you have to remember this is summer and liquidity in the summer is low, which is why you can get big moves without a lot of volume. As a long-term investor, he has cash, about 10%-12%, that he is willing to use when an opportunity arises. In 2007-2008, he had up to 35% in cash because he was very, very worried. He is actually looking to buy more in Europe on the dips, which is where he thinks the big values are. Least value is in Canada, partly because of the makeup of the market being 80% financials, resource and material.
COMMENT
Oil. Would you buy juniors, midsize or large cap? Oil is currently in a basic trading range with the bottom at around $70-$80 and the top at around $105. When it is $105-$110, that is very negative for global economy. He would like it low to mid $90's. Forget juniors at this time but midsize and large cap are okay. Until we can get pipeline access into Alberta and Saskatchewan, oil is being shipped by rail, which is expensive.
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Resource stocks. Because of what is going on in the currency markets and debt markets in Europe, the area that appeals to him most now are precious metals including gold, silver and even platinum.
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Markets. Markets are looking ahead to the Fed hoping that maybe it is going to move with more stimulus. Not sure that there has been enough of a break down yet for them to act. Come September, we're getting a little too close to the politics. He is now feeling that they may just stand pat. TSX chart is showing a decent little trend starting to get established.
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Gold versus banks? He likes bullion and thinks the risk/reward is a lot better than the banks.
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Markets. The areas where he is finding opportunities are largely geared towards the tech space, healthcare space as well as the low beta type of defence names, those that are less impacted by the overall market uncertainties that take place.
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Markets. Expects to see markets accelerate over the next few years at a greater than historical rate but there will be more volatility. If you grow earnings, prices sooner or later will follow. Right now we are trading at a low multiple because confidence is low. Corporate earnings, although soft this quarter, are actually headed towards record territory later this year. However, if earnings come on cost cutting, they are not the same quality. Also revenues have not been nearly as strong as earnings.
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Markets. In spite of all the bad news, the North American markets are relatively well behaved. If you look at the holdings of gold a year ago by the European countries, Germany had about 3400 tons, Italy 2450, France 2435, Portugal 421, Spain 281 and Greece 111. One of the great problems is getting new buyers for these countries bonds. What can they do? Instead of issuing short-term bonds, as they have been doing, they extend terms. Italy and France could issue gold backed bonds going out in the future 20, 25 years. The 1st conversion rate might be in 3 or 4 years.
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Natural gas. The initial run-up in natural gas was definitely short covering. People started realizing that the conversion from coal to natural gas was gaining steam. He feels natural gas price will go to somewhere between $3.50 and $4.50 in one year.
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