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Walmart IncWMTBUYAug 05, 2021Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 16, 2026. Market Open.
WMT and COST are the dominant discount retailers in the US. They became priced for perfection, with multiples of 40-50x PE for a large, mature company. Might be a great company, but that multiple's for a younger company, growing at very high rates because it can get a lot bigger. Both are in the process of compressing to a 20x PE multiple.
Either earnings are better than expected and stock trends sideways. Or earnings are worse, and multiple goes down. Either way, not much upside.
Both great companies, but both very expensive. COST is over 50x PE, and WMT's in the 40s. Fairly low-margin model. Reliant on the consumer, and everyone's affected when that consumer is struggling.
WMT reported today. Earnings were OK, but projections on future quarters were tough. High fuel prices were highlighted.
Successful transition to e-commerce is why stock's been on fire. Topline growth is only 4-5%, and his team debates this company all the time. PE is 46x earnings for 2026, extremely expensive. Seen as a safe place to park $$ as they continue to execute.
See his Top Picks.
It's still the world's biggest retailer despite Amazon. Wells Fargo upgraded it from hold to buy today. Low-end consumers are flush from the generous child tax credit. Walmart+ is intended to compete with Amazon Prime. Their relative underperformance (down for the year to date) creates opportunity. Today, WM broke out of a tight range and rose nearly 2% on that upgrade.