Gordon ReidTexas InstrumentsTXNCOMMENTSep 07, 2016

It issued terrific guidance Tuesday and shares jumped 10%. TXN has lagged the semi stocks for years and has little data centre exposure. Most business comes from industrials and cars. Its data centre business is growing.

The shares have flatlined for a long time until jumping 10% after management talked about tight supply for computer chips.

On the technicals, he wouldn't put $$ in. Chart shows it's range-bound. You'd expect this company to get better over time, but that hasn't happened. Laggard. If it breaks $160, indications are it'll head lower.

The big deal in Edge AI is the embedded processors. Longest customer list of anyone in the semiconductor industry, because of its analog business and its embedded division. The analysts he follows have an average 12-month price target of $249. Yield is 2.55%.

Clearly isn't going to topple NVDA from the throne on which it finds itself. Every time someone thinks they can do that, NVDA comes out with a new version of the chip that's even better.

Looking for niche areas where they can develop or meet demand without going head-to-head with NVDA on its mainstream chips. Not sure how successful it will be. Probably better plays out there, such as AVGO.

Extremely well run. Highly integrated, with internal manufacturing for analog. Focuses on free cashflow. Will likely lose share in China over time, which is looking to make things domestically. 

Fell 7.5% today on earnings. Has long loved this. They make good car and industrial chips, but those are down in the dumps.  They beat top and bottom, but their end markets are weak. They should go private.

He sold it last May and doesn't regret it. It just reported and shares are rising. But TXN's AI strategy isn't as clear as its peers.

Activist Elliott Partners can improve things here. He's bullish. Pays a 2.5% dividend yield.

Good management + activist Elliott Management.

Struggled lately from technical perspective. Under accumulation at this point. Appears to have resistance. Would wait before buying. 

Liked it until summer of 2023. Shine came off the EV ecosystem. January reporting beat on bottom, bit shy on top. Lowered guidance, and this really hurt. Not in the AI space.

Not doing well. Cars are their strong area, but cars will not be good, and comms are bad. A terrible last quarter. You can hold onto this.

He's frustrated with it, up only 2% year to date, and he's slightly under water it. This ranks 28th of his 31 tech holdings. The company moves slowly and far less nimble than its peers who are doing much better. It was downgraded today.

They deliver poor conference calls stressing things like too much inventory and not enough demand gives analysts little to work with. They trash their own company. Shares sell after these calls only to rebound.