Tesla IncTSLADON'T BUYJun 06, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
They reported Q1 last week and disappointed: 385K deliveries, well below expectations, but they totaled 408K vehicles in production, increasing 13% YOY, possibly creating excess inventory and leading to cutting prices. Also, energy storage was 8.8 gigawatt hours deployed vs. the expected 14.4, very disappointing. That said, Tesla has seen auto deliveries decline for 2 years, after peaking in 2023-4 while earnings peaked in 2022 at $4.07 EPS before falling 23%, 22% and another 31% in the next three years, nearly 60%. over 5 years, shares are up 53%. Tesla needs show growth in another area, robotaxis, to inspire shareholders, but there's no indication of sales or progress in this area. With their car business deteriorating, investors are starting to wonder if this is a dangerous stock, especially with Musk taking SpaceX public in the future. But that could trigger a sell-off of Tesla shares to buy SpaceX--right now, Tesla is the only way to invest in Musk, which is scarcity value, but that will end when SpaceX goes public. Until there's progress in robotaxis, Tesla shares will continue to fall.
Hard to know what the future holds for this company. Taking gigantic bets on robotics and power generation, and spending a lot of $$. Valuation is ~200x PE!! A lot of this fantastic news that may or may not happen in the future seems to be already priced into the stock. Elon Musk is an amazing storyteller.
He won't buy for clients right now. He doesn't like to buy on unknown what-ifs 20 years in the future. We'll have to see how the Chinese EVs work out. But if it came down to a reasonable valuation, he'd be interested.
Used to be invested, but not now. Sees a lot of potential for upside, but also for downside. Robotics (very early stages) and autonomous vehicles (will take longer to gain adoption). She wants companies with good risk/reward plus some kind of valuation support to get them through a downturn. TSLA doesn't have that.
Long term, over 10 years, likely to do well.
He's liked the company for ages for its EV's, self-driving cars and robots, which show promise, but he could never pull the trigger. However, last night, as the feud exploded, he changed is mind. Tesla and all its businesses changed the moment Musk broke with Trump. Musk got personal and incendiary towards Trump. Trump is vindictive. Musk should not have picked a fight with Trump, despite Musk spending $250 million getting Trump elected. Musk's various businesses dovetail with Washington. If anything goes wrong with Tesla's self-driving cars, he can see Trump banning them. Trump could ban robots, too. So, that leaves the EV's, and that alone makes Tesla over-valued. Tesla cars aren't selling well, and Washington will stop subsidizing them. Musk is a brilliant businessman, but a self-destructive political operator--he's become toxic, and Tesla stock has become too hard to own.