Jennifer StevensonTusk EnergyTSK.TOHOLDOct 30, 2008
Domestic Western Canadian producer of over 6000 BTUs a day. Extremely cheap at about 1.5X cash flow. Strong drilling results are coming in on the 4th quarter. Strong balance sheet.
Looking for some pretty dramatic production growth in the next 6 months. They are looking to add 50% to their production numbers. Buy when you see the stocks starting to level out in the next few weeks.
4200 BOE is a day in Q1. Think this will go to 7000 by the end of 2008 and averaging 7500 in 2009. After spring break-up, they will move 3 rigs in. Think they'll drill 50 wells this year and 50 next.
Has done very well over the last few months. Primarily gas. All activity is in Western Canada, so no geopolitical risk. Trades at a good discount to its NAV and only about 3X next year's cash flow.
Natural gas. Longer-term chart shows the stock has lost a lot of value. Fundamentally, natural gas stocks are starting to find more positive earnings. Great buying opportunity right now.
He is in the camp that believes natural gases will firm up by the 4th quarter of 09. Think they will exceed 5500 BOE's a day by the end of 08 and generating about $.70 in cash flow, so is trading about 2X cash flow. NAV is about $2.60. Balance sheet is in pretty good shape.
Did 4400 BOE's in the 3rd quarter and about $.12 in cash flow. Think they will average 5100 and 2008 exiting at 5500. Should generate cash flow of about $.70.
Gas weighted. Has huge land acreage in northwestern Alberta. Expect prices on the stock will be a lot higher in a year. Solid management. The debt is fine. Very cheap multiple.
This is a natural gas story. The company has the ability to grow the volume by 20% a year just by the cost control and how they are running it. He likes the story and the management team.
As dropped down way below its intrinsic value and could be a takeout. Low multiple at 2.5X cash flow. Expect it will be gone in a next 5 to 6 months at a nice premium.