Opinions
Kash Pashootan
Tapestry Inc.
TPR-N
DON'T BUY
Mar 14, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Got an analyst upgrade today and the stock surged and lifted the entire retail clothing sector. He prefers tried-and-true Lululemon though.
Premium contentStockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly TPR is an international manufacturer of luxury items that include the Coach and Kate Spade brands. They have built cash reserves back above $2 billion during the pandemic, while paying down debt. They trade at 16x earnings, compared to peers like RL at 49x. They have re-instated the dividend at a good yield, while keeping the payout ratio under 50% of cash flow. We would buy this with a stop loss at $30, looking to achieve $53.50 -- upside potential over 29%. Yield 2.45%. (Analysts’ price target is $53.13)
Premium contentPremium contentSome high-end names like Louis Vuitton have not been doing well. But TPR has been performing decently. Above 200-day MA, which is moving higher. Mid-high luxury, and that part of the market is doing better. Could be that the ultra-rich are "downshifting" into names owned by this brand.
15.5x forward PE, slightly above 10-year historical norms for this name. 9-10% growth. So valuation is decent. Investors should be cautious about impact of a downturn in the economy on this type of name.
This is gone through a respectable 1st round of recovery. They’ve renovated about 500 stores and are planning to renovate a couple of more. They’ve removed their products from about a quarter of the Department stores, and have reduced the number of promotions/sales which has helped their profit margins. These are entry-level luxury items, and people only buy 1 or 2 of them, unless they expand their offerings. They are not buying 4 or 5. Not sure where the growth is going to come from. Feels the easy money has already been made.