LuLulemon Athletica (US) (LULU-Q)

Plunged 18.5% today on weak full-year guidance. Costco could be disrupting LULU's business with rival clothing at a fraction of LULU's cost. LULU is -56% this year. Costco's Kirkland brand is masterful in offering quality products at decent prices. The fall in LULU signals that Americans want value, not status or want value as well as status, but not feeling duped for paying full price just for a brand name. LULU should lower its price to please main street, not Wall Street.

Look at the 5-year chart for the big picture. Has support ~$300. Recently bounced, and then failed (failure of support). So we have ourselves a breakdown, the opposite of a breakout. Will probably bounce in the near term. 

But there's this monstrous wall, let's call it $270, and the stock will probably fail before that point. At the points of support and resistance, people bought there and they remember what they paid. They just took a shellacking and they want out. And that's why you'll see selling pressure.

It has had a deep dive since January. Has had issues with international markets and recovery. It is a global leader in premium athletic wear but there is intense competition from its competitors. Wait for a turnaround to start and then maybe take an initial position of 1 1/2%. She has traded it before. Analysts are forecasting a 54% upside.

Under pressure from tariffs and overseas manufacturing, now good value around 14x PE compared to its history. Based in Canada, but about 80% of sales from US. No dividend.

You could look out to September and sell a $195 put and get ~$11. Gives you $7 of downside protection before hitting the strike. If stock continues to drop, you buy it there minus the $11 you collected. If stock doesn't drop, you've made close to 6% over 1.5 months. Reports early September.

Average down? Shares are -43% for the year, so it's tricky, but you can buy modestly now to your holding.

He sold in December/24 since it got to their price faster than expected. There is some tariff noise around it. Same store sales in the U.S. haven't really grown in 2 years so it's best to wait.

Used it as a trading opportunity. Exited back in December when her team saw some weakness in the consumer. Sales grew 21% in China and 20% elsewhere. Margins held up despite inventory headwinds. Pricing power remains strong. Trades below 17x forward PE compared to 5-year average of 27x, undervalued again. Zero debt, lots of cash.

Cautious now, but back on her radar.

It was very sold off so she bought it and sold in December for a 36 to 37% return and not a long hold time. It is now oversold even with the recent guidance cut. She doesn't like the discretionary space but there could be some upside.

Is very surprised shares tanked after reporting (he had recommended buying before the report). They had a bad conference call and quarter. Everything went wrong for them, including tariffs. He expects a corporate shake-up.

It reports Thursday. Are doing a ton of  business in China. Shares are too cheap now.

It peaked in 2023 and got clobbered last year. Then, it got hit with tariffs and shares sank again. Is -25% since last January. It reports next week. Last March's report was actually okay, beating sales and earnings. But we expected that because the company pre-announced results. That's why the street punished it for weak guidance. He remains hopeful, because he expects the 46% tariff on Vietnam, which makes a lot of LULU product, will face a much lower tariff. However, shares have rebounded 18% the past month. They have a strategic plan focused on product innovation, guest experience and market expansion. Expectations are low for this quarter with even some analysts expecting an upside surprise in earnings and same-store US sales. He likes this set up and would buy now.

At 17x PE, this is frantically trying to bottom. You can put a small position on this now.