Stockchase Opinions

Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI CIM The Green Organic Dutchman Holdings Ltd. TGOD-CSE PARTIAL SELL Jan 04, 2019

When a stock loses this much, it's on life support. Especially when it's down from the $5-6 levels of the past summer. Want to see a breakout above current consolidation area on some volume to trigger a buy. Consider reducing your exposure.
$2.590

Stock price when the opinion was issued

agriculture
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COMMENT

Has been a popular stock, Aurora is entitled to about half their production. High multiple, so same issue with supply coming down the pipe. There are some cheaper names, based on exports and production levels, such as Hydropothecary. Good company, but facing industry-wide issues.

BUY

Competitive advantage over traditional cannabis? Likes it, versus a lot of the growers. Concern about the sector is that it will become a commodity, and then lowest price wins. A lot of consumers will care about the supply chain in terms of emissions, labour standards, environmental and social issues. People will pay for certified organic.

DON'T BUY

It's done very well. The organic portion certainly has its place in the consumer market. If someone can organically produce cannabis, they should get a premium on their product, though they'd face competition. Green's valuation is rich vs. its peers. He's avoided it because of this valuation.

COMMENT
This sector is bought on sold based on news, so it's riskier. He likes TGOD because they focus on organic products, so this brand could tap into that audience and do well. He stresses that this sector is volatile, though great long-term potential. TGOD is among the best of organic weed stocks. The sector will rebound, but will take time.
WATCH
He looked at this during their private rounds of financing. He had concerns after the IPO. Their facilities have been slow to get up and running. There has been an overhang as Aurora owned a sizable piece. This will become a sizable cannabis producer in the future, but it will take multiple stages to get there and there will be growing pains along the way. He will watch this one.
COMMENT
This is an interesting cannabis company. They are the only one that is certified organic. The market is still so young for this. He does not see a lot of differentiation. He does not know how much consumers want organic cannabis. It is held in an organics ETF. It will be caught in the frenzy and will trade on news.
WATCH
They had a lot of shares that became free trading from previous financing. Also Aurora had an option that they did not exercise on the stock. They are building this big greenhouse but the facilities are 12-18 months behind. He is watching it. They will be a dominant player once they are done.
DON'T BUY
Technicals would have been helpful for the cannabis space in general. The low near $1.09 is key support, if it breaks below this watch out.