Stockchase Opinions

Charles Oliver, HBSc CFA Stornoway Diamond SWY-T COMMENT Aug 05, 2014

The only diamond stock he owns. Has a great asset. You’ll have to wait 2 or 3 years before they are into production, 2017-2018. They are going to have a huge amount of cash flow. Very nice looking project. As they de-risk the project, you will see it rise. Have a government that seems to be clearly on side with the project moving forward.

$0.660

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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COMMENT

Had owned this years ago, but had his head handed to him on a platter. This was perceived to be a gem of a company with a great, great future, but unfortunately they didn’t have revenues. They have a lot of financial backing with the Québec government behind them. They would have to be further along in their process for him to be interested. At some point this could be a good play, but the question is, when is a good time to get in. He is not interested.

DON'T BUY

These stocks can do well all the way through to February and then they tail off. This one has been dreadful. Seasonally, you don’t want to be invested in material stocks during the summer.

BUY

Good momentum characteristics. He exited late last year. They are one of the few diamond mines. It is a quality cyclical stock. They have chunky cash flow because of the way they sell diamonds at auctions.

DON'T BUY

He used to own it and did poorly. He does not like to buy into companies without revenues. It has taken years and years and years to get it up and running.

COMMENT

Had owned this 7-8 years ago and it was a major lesson. They had talked about coming into production a few years ago, and didn’t quite make it. Then they went through massive dilutions, and he lost a lot of money. He now doesn’t buy into any company that doesn’t have revenues. Doesn’t follow this closely anymore.

WAIT

Stocks start to trade up close to production, but no mine will work flawlessly immediately. He likes it, but thinks it will not come in at operational capacity right away.

COMMENT

It is the usual issue with any new mine. Let’s see how the ramp-up goes. There are always issues. He always likes to discount things at least 25%. It is going to take longer and cost you more and take longer to finally get to economic production, and he assumes this will be no different. Thinks the stock is sort of pricing in that expectation.

COMMENT

He thinks the diamond market will come back. Over time there was dilution. Stock consolidations often kills the stock price for a year. He usually sells before a consolidation. He will not buy a company with zero revenues unless they are coming in the next year.

COMMENT

They just put a mine into production. The good news is they have produced more karats than expected, but the bad news is what has happened in India. He hopes it stabilizes and goes away.

DON'T BUY
Quebec government involvement? A great learning experience for him in the past. He would never buy anything on the promise of future revenues. He sold out and took a loss. He stays away from a company that always has problems. The government involvement is good, but they are generally not smart investors. A speculative play. He would stay away.