Stock price when the opinion was issued
In a difficult space. Reality of the grocery business in North America is that there is more square footage growth than there is population growth, from the likes of Walmart (WMT-N), discounts and even Dollar stores. Very levered company with over $5 billion of debt and no top line growth presently. Earnings are not growing. About 4.5% dividend.
Has been under pressure. Had boring earnings and some operational issues and they were buying back stock and putting the debt on the balance sheet. Had a tremendous 4th quarter. Big turnaround. Took their financial card public, which will help clean up their balance sheet. Expects that in a year or 2 they will be buying back stock again. Dividend yield of 2.72%.
Just sold their Canadian business to Empire Co (Sobeys). This is the last, big, attractive consolidation play in the grocery space in Canada. Stock went from $23-$29 where he sold his holdings. Stock has now dropped back to $23 and he feels the market is missing the picture here. They are going to get $4 billion net after taxes and will spend $2 billion to pay back debt and another $2 billion to buy back stock. Yield of 3.4%. Has a target of $27-$30.
Trading at 30 times estimated earnings. Talk of private equity getting involved. Sector is not one of the leading ones. Defensive ones have done better over the last few weeks. This not the best place to be focused. Estimates in general have been coming down for the stock. He would take the money and move on.
Supermarket industry in North America is tending to do a little bit better. This has not been one of the best run companies but has benefited recently by the sale of their Canadian division to Empire (EMP.A-T). He would use any strength in the stock to get out.