Stockchase Opinions

Michelle Wearing Slate Retail REIT SRT.UN-T DON'T BUY Aug 22, 2019

It owns grocers in shopping malls in secondary markets in the US. She doesn't like US retail. Debt is a high 61%, and the stock pays nearly 100% of AFFO earnings through its dividend yield, which risks being cut. Look elsewhere for less risk.
$12.770

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TOP PICK

This is food centred US retail malls. They own $1 billion worth in 23 states. Has a pretty good track record. Dividend yield of 7.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $11.75.)

BUY

With their big property anchored by grocery stores, does Slate stand a chance against rising interest rates and Amazon entering the grocery space? Consolidation (Amazon buying Whole Foods) is occuring which is an inflation play--the big food stores pass on inflation to consumers. (Also, good REITs are going private and leaving the market, which is a concern.) His firm has a buy signal on this.

COMMENT

He likes it, but doesn't own it, because it's a small cap which he doesn't buy. It's gotten a little cheaper. They're grocery-anchored in secondary markets in the U.S. midwest. It's stable and operates well. He likes it, but liquidity is an issue for him (being a small-cap). They have a fortress around them (everyone will still walk into a grocery/drug store), so they can stave off the Amazon effect.

PAST TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick Sept. 29, 2017, Up 3%) The operate grocery-centred, easter nU.S. shopping malls. The big fear over Amazon buying Whole Foods is overdone; people will always want to buy groceries in person. For instance, grocery sales at Walmarts are holding their own.

BUY

REI.UN vs. SRT.UN Never owned REI.UN, not because he dislikes it, but they're so large, it's hard to change what they own. For example, they bought then sold the U.S, and now they're buying Canada. He prefers SRU.U-T in the same space, but Walmart anchors them. In contrast, RioCan had to deal with the Sears and Target closings. SRT has rallied for the past few months, despite the Amazon effect, but still has room to grow. Nothing wrong with REI.UN, but he prefers SRT.UN. Managment are also large shareholders. SRT.UN-T focuses on grocers in mid-market US towns. They have reduced their leverage. He likes SRT's American operations and its defensiveness. The only negative is an external managed contract that seems to be going on forever.

TOP PICK

Slate owns all its assets in the US and this is grocery anchored. He doesn't see Amazon making a big impact in this space. This trades at 9% yield and only distributes 88% of cash flow. Leverage is at 55%. It trades at a discount to NAV. Yield 8.76% (Analysts’ price target is $13.08)

BUY
Likes it except for its external management contract and its small market cap. He really likes their properties, all US and grocers anchored in secondary markets like Pittsburgh and outside Chicago, across the midwest and south. Great sustainable 9% yield. The stock is cheap and rents are growing 5%. It's defensive in the US space. It's now 10% lower than its NAV.
DON'T BUY
It is an externally managed company and they are good operators in what they do. They own retail centers in secondary markets. He is not bullish on retail and secondary markets are not where you want to invest.
HOLD
This would be a hold for him, if not a sell. It has US grocery stores in small centres. It has an external management contract, which he feels is not in alignment with share holders.