Stockchase Opinions

Jim Cramer - Mad Money Snowflake SNOW-N DON'T BUY Dec 06, 2021

Why cloud computing stocks have sunk lately. In Q4, 2018, then interest rates suddenly rose, cloud stocks sank 35.5% , which was a great buying opportunity. If you bought then, those names doubled or more. Not all recovered, so buying the dip had to be selective. Unlike 2018, we have real inflation. So, a 35% decline may be the full decline of cloud stocks--but he isn't convinced, and there could be more pain. 18 of 50 cloud stocks have single-digit price-sales valuations--reasonable. Buy these that have fallen enough: Salesforce, VMware and New Relic. Trading at 8-15x sales include Coupa, Otka, Adobe. However, at 20-30x sales include Hubspot and Crowstrike, which are still too high. 30-40x sales: MongoDB and Unity, for example, also way too high. Trading above 30x sales include Snowflake and Cloudflare, also way too high, though he likes names like Snowflake. Likely, there's more downside to come before we reach the Santa Claus Rally.
$341.660

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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WATCH

Big downtrend, trying to break it. $124 is a critical level for this stock; if it can get above, suggests that the stock will take off afterwards. If you own, definitely don't sell. If looking to buy, watch over the next month.

He'd rather pay more for a stock on confirmation that it's working, than try to catch the bottom. So here, he'd rather pay $130, than pay $119 and watch it go down to $100.

DON'T BUY

The CEO is doing a good job, but they aren't putting up good numbers to raise shares. They have to put in a good year ahead.

TOP PICK

Cloud-based, data platform provider. Infrastructure and platform as a service. Also AI machine-learning integration. Chart shows how it's rolled over. Change in the CEO, and then the CRWD data breach. Very deep pockets, $3B in cash. Profitable, free cashflow. Never seems to lose customers. In acquisition mode. 41% haircut this year, great value. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $172.36)
DON'T BUY

Despite fantastic quarter, very expensive on any financial metric. PE of over 100, for 25-30% revenue growth. Free cashflow yield is very low at 1-2%. So you're really banking on earnings growth momentum continuing for the next 5-10 years. Risk from larger competing cloud players.

BUY

His 12-month price target is $228. Key player with the hyperscalers, but also gravitates over into the on-premises side of things.

BUY

Growing faster than expected: total revenues +27%, product revenue 28%. They guided 8% margin expansion, and this is the story going forward. It's been volatile, but are positioned well for 2025. They announced a partnership with MSFT.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

12-month price target of $225.41. Amazing turnaround. New CEO is an engineering guy, who really understands what SNOW is all about. Leading cloud-based data platform provider; helps data move seamlessly, faster, and with less energy. February earnings blew it out of the park, then got tangled up in tariff rhetoric.

If you own it, absolutely hold. If you don't, sell some puts (and you want to get taken anyway).

BUY

They report Wednesday. Their business is on fire.

BUY

They reported after today's close their third-straight strong quarter: top and bottom line beats, strong guidance this quarter and terrific full-year sales forecast. Is up 31% the past month. 

BUY

They beat (earnings up 71%, crucial product revenues 28%), and raised. Are gaining momentum.