Norman Levine J. M. Smuckers Co. SJM-N BUY Jul 21, 2008

It looks like the downside is not over. Could it get back to $96? It could, because the model price is actually falling. If you own it, look for $96 which is where he would buy more. It could test resistance again at $132.65.

This is another of those boring US consumer product names. We now have an $.80 dollar that is good for purchasing US stocks. Good discipline with their balance sheet. A quality company. Dividend yield of 2.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $131.)

They have a large proportion of their business is coffee. They just made a big pet food acquisition. Debt to equity ratios for these kinds of companies tend to be high because they have a high credit rating due to the fact that they are inelastic – people have to buy the products regardless. Their problem is that their revenues are starting to slide. Little eCommerce startups have eroded 3% of all the revenues of all the big guys. There is nothing wrong with the company and it is a matter of how quickly they can get the revenues back up.

It should capitalize on restaurant closures in the current lockdown, but this stock is wildly inconsistent. SJM holds a curious assortment of products. He thinks SJM is ready to catch up, but prefers Hormel.

They report Tuesday. Shares have stalled lately, because Wall Street has lost faith in the defensives. If SJM reports a beat, money may flow back into this sector.