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Michael Simpson, CFA Rogers Sugar Inc RSI-T DON'T BUY Jan 17, 2019

Involved in a duopoly in Canada. They bought a maple syrup company and debt levels went up. Sugar in Canada is a slow growth business and he is concerned about their payout ratio.

Michael Simpson, CFA

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$5.610

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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DON'T BUY

It's part of a duopoly in Canada, but new players will likely enter this industry, so he wouldn't buy it. Dividend of 6.9% which should be safe.

COMMENT

The sugar business is stable; it's a duopoly in Canada, though it's facing pushback from health advocates. Also, China may boycott maple syrup, so that's a challenge. Sugar is very low growth. The dividend is safe.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Doesn't think dividend will be guillotined. Disappointing because it doesn't grow. Sugar is not a growth business. It's not a growth stock and probably never will be. Hold and try to trade it at the middle of its range.

DON'T BUY

He hasn't looked at it recently. It's a safe, Canadian dividend stock, but not the kind of business he's looking at now. It's in a heavily regulated industry, a commodity, so if there's too much sugar produced in a given year, the stock will get hit.

HOLD

They have owned this in the past. It went no where for decades. The maple syrup side, which they entered about six years has been a disappointment and has been volatile. A safe and boring company. Not a lot of downside. You can milk it for the dividend, but there is not much upside.

BUY

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

EPS of 15c beat estimates of 12C. Revenue of $261M beat estimates of $246M.
EBITDA of $33.5M beat estimates of $28.9M.
Sales volume guidance was increased, with strong sugar demand and pricing.
The Maple segment is expected to do better as unfavourable conditions of last year subside.
These earnings are solid.
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COMMENT

It's had a decent run up and has pulled back a little. But the mild winter weather may play havok with later production levels.

HOLD

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

RSI beat EPS estimates of 13c coming in at 14c. Revenue also beat estimates of $304.7M coming in at $333.03M increasing 10% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $141.6M up 28% year-over-year. The quarterly and full-year results look solid, with increasing sales driven by price increases and volume growth. The sales volume expectation for sugar in FY2025 is set at 800,000 metric tonnes. The sales volume for maple is expected to grow moderately by 0.5M pounds. We think the earnings were solid and RSI continues to be an OK value/income stock.
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WEAK BUY

Valuation, dividend, and balance sheet are OK. Too boring for him. If you're a small- to mid-cap dividend player, it's a pretty good and steady name. Less sensitive to the economy. Protected by sugar quotas, which look pretty secure right now (though you never know what the government will do). #2 player in the space, and hard to get into.

Don't expect miracles. Take your 5% dividend, get the dividend tax credit, be happy with that.

HOLD

Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

Stagflation, or simply inflation, would likely hurt the stock quite a lot as investors would seek higher-paying alternatives. The lack of dividend increases would hurt its appeal in such a scenario as well. The company has not had an annual loss since 2001. Payout ratio is less than 30% Debt is a bit high but manageable. We would not really see the dividend at huge risk in the mid term. But it would be a change in government quotas or competition that would be more detrimental to the company, we think. Its busines is not overly sensitive to the economy. Sales only slipped slightly in 2008, for example.
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