Robert Floyd
Rider Resources Ltd.
RRZ-T
BUY
Nov 14, 2007
Made a big acquisition earlier this year and took on a little bit more debt than they probably would have liked. Numbers have been a little bit weaker than what he would have liked. Would like to see a stronger gas outlook and eventually you will get this. Looking pretty cheap.
Caller asked if there was a connection between natural gas and oil.
Doesn't think so. Different forces at work here.
Natural gas is totally unloved at the moment.
From chart, it had a drop hit a low, had a slight rise, then another drop to a new low. That's the clue that it's a laggard.
He would prefer to buy when it moves up.
Watch other stocks in this sector, (10 peers, and the energy sector gas trust). When they start to move this one will follow.
Has been adding it, on the expectation that the worst is over. A premiere management team. They are in natural gas which right now is not good. They have a very high debt burden. There is more upside then downside. If you have it, hold it. Otherwise pick your entry points.
Probably the cheapest gas stock selling at 1.8 or 2 times next year’s earnings. Considering averaging down once the smoke starts to clear. Given their properties, the management and the management skills, he would be a holder.
Has more than 3X debt to cash flow, so there is concern. Very strong management team. Focused on the Pembina area in Alberta. She doesn't think the management will allow it to go bankrupt. She recently purchased some shares in hopes of a turnaround.
Being acquired by Nuvista Energy (NVA-T). This is a steal for them. Someone else could come in. If the acquisition goes through, stay with Nuvista because natural gas stocks will come back.
Being acquired by Nuvista (NVA-T), which has great management and enviable land positions. Intermediate gas weighted stocks have moved up considerably in the last few weeks, 20% and even up to 50% so there is a potential for some pullback.
(A Top Pick July 12/07. Up 5% at the time of acquisition by Nuvista (NVA-T) in March.) He took the Nuvista shares and they went up by another 25%. Still a Hold.