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Retirement Residences REIT (RRR.UN.TO)

HOLD
One of the difficulties is that somewhere years ago, the Ontario government put in some incentives which added about 20,000 new beds to retirement homes which caused a huge oversupply. This is gradually being absorbed. They have a number of properties that are going to have to be upgraded which will cost them a fair bit of money. Could be a takeover.
DON'T BUY
Has continued to languish. Feels their operating challenges are going to continue. They face 3 main issues. 1) competitive landscape in Ontario 2) lives of some key management people and 3) their physical product is quite inferior.
WEAK BUY
Has a higher than normal yield for a REIT, but this is not truly a REIT, but is an operating business that happens to be on top of real estate. Showed marked improvement in Q3 and thinks their distribution is safe, but your margin of error is relatively thin. A higher risk name.
DON'T BUY
Has performed extremely well recently. A huge demographic play. Have come out of their recent problems and there are rumours of M&A activity.
TOP PICK
The largest provider of retirement homes in Canada. The high 8’s in yield. A safe buy at this price.
BUY
Basically has a portfolio, largely in Ontario, of long-term care homes, nursing homes and retirement residences. When Ontario added more than 20,000 long-term care beds, it had a devastating impact on them. Operations will take a while to turn around. She has an out perform rating on the stock. Have a wall of debt, facing them. Not for the faint of heart.
SELL
If it's held outside an RRSP and you have a tax loss deductible, maybe it's time to bite the bullet. Not a fan of the REIT sector in general.
HOLD
There has been an inclination to give the management the benefit of the doubt. They do have an older product. The stock is acting as if they are going to have to make another cut in distributions. Nursing home situation seems to be improving over all.
DON'T BUY
Was a poorly managed company, but is better now. Will have to do an equity issue or reduce their distributions which will cause the price to drop. If you see it $0.50/1.00 cheaper, it will probably be a good entry point.
DON'T BUY
Senior housing industry which she is quite favourable on. Stock is trading at a discount to its net asset value. Facing some operating challenges as the Ontario government has been introducing a lot of new beds into the market. This is coming to an end and the price should firm up a little. Also getting some other competition.
WAIT
Doesn't currently own, but is doing a lot of due diligence on it. Has an analyst visiting some of their sites. Starting to get attractive because it's believed that it's a REIT that's trading at it net asset value. Waiting for Q3 results to come out. May look at it if it gets cheaper.
TOP PICK
Doesn't think anything is cheap, so his Top Picks are names that have underperformed and can be looked at. The market is acting as though this trust will do alright. Had way overpaid their distributions for a long time. Have changed management. Very good chance that it's going to grow itself out of its problems.
DON'T BUY
Likes the senior housing sector. This is probably the weakest player. Have faced significant operating problems. Oversupply in Ontario should work itself out. Sector has become a lot more competitive, so they'll have to adapt. Lost some senior personnel. New CEO has limited exposure to senior housing but is taking a good approach. Properties are lower quality than others.
BUY
Has been on hard times. Cut its distribution last year. New management has cleaned house. Large addition of long term care beds cut into their business. Fundamentals will improve over time. 9% yield which should be safe.
WEAK BUY
Likes the outlook for retirement residences. Have the demographics going for them. From a structural point of view prefers Chartwell (CSH.UN-T).
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