Stockchase Opinions

Darren Sissons Royal Dutch Shell PLC (B) RDS.B-N HOLD Sep 24, 2020

Did cut its dividend, but these are unprecedented times. Big oil has to come to grips with the new renewable environment. Most oil is heavily discounted, so this is a long-term opportunity. It's a turnaround for the whole industry.
$25.480

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Energy
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BUY
Half of the company benefits from strong oil prices and half benefits from weak oil prices. They are among the largest investors in the world in green energy. They are re-engineering themselves and will be a leader in renewable energy over the next 30 years starting right now. It is a reasonable defensive place to be.
WEAK BUY

Pays over a 7% yield. All oil stocks have been hammered, but it made a good deal when it bought British Gas five years ago. They're now an LNG company more than oil. Gas is the cleanest carbon fuel. Last Friday, oil stocks bottomed, though the stocks are gushing cash. Oil will stick around for another 15-20 years. So, these stocks are worth looking at unless you don't care for carbon.

COMMENT
It has not cut its dividend since the second world war. They will be closely tied to the dividend. They are a component of many pension funds and the like. If they make it two quarters then it will be okay.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 15/19, Down 38%) He sold this about a month ago on the basis of them exiting all energy stocks. A great company, but they created an earthquake when they cut dividends for the first time since WWII. The whole sector is under incredible pressure.
HOLD

Fell to book value, but jumped on Pfizer announcement. Intrinsic value is 60% higher than current value. Fairly indifferent balance sheet. If it can break above $31, could easily go as high as $42. No yield.

TOP PICK
If you looked at what happened during Covid was the sell-off in energy. Half the world is still at home. When we start to go back to work, travel, etc there will be a demand for carbon. A recovery trade. The untold story is their transition into hydrogen and renewables. They have cash to continue growing this business. Longer term, they have cut their dividend just once since WW2, which was last year. A solid company. (Analysts’ price target is $55.86)
COMMENT

The ESG movement is affecting stocks like RDS. Was pulled into the courts by activists. Many large companies have on going lawsuits and are shared in quarterly reports. It's not too big of an issue. They are transitioning into a renewable company with Hydrogen and wind farms. Big oil will be a natural beneficiaries of renewables. The dividend is sustainable and growth outlook is good. Oil is also a recovery trade.

DON'T BUY
She's shied away from large integrated companies. Dividend of 3.5%. You can buy a more stable income stock that has more cashflow growth visibility. Not an area she's interested in for clients.
SELL
Shell can still appeal the court decision but it would affect all the major competitors. They are all on the path to reduce their greenhouse emissions. They are transitioning to renewable. He does not own anything in the sector any more. This is an opportunity to look for an exit.