Opinions
Rick Stuchberry
Petrobras Energia SA
PZE-N
SELL ON STRENGTH
Dec 23, 2013
$6.280
Stock price when the opinion was issued
oil
gas
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One of the 3 largest emerging market stocks globally. A favourite globally because it is assumed to have a very high growth profile as offshore production comes online over the next several years. Wouldn't be his favourite because 1) not particularly cheap and 2) significant government influence. Would prefer Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A-N).
oil
gas
COMMENT
This has a very, very leveraged balance sheet. A number of their bonds are coming due in the next 18 months. Because this is a very important entity to the Brazilian government, she doesn’t think there is going to be a default. There might be a painful refinancing. This tends to trade as a very highly levered higher beta call on oil prices. Have a lot of great assets, which they can always sell. Be cautious, because as a shareholder you come way behind all the bondholders.
oil
gas
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Thinks oil will go sideways over the next few years due to supplies coming in from horizontal drilling. Their reserves will be hard to get out at current pricing. We may never need to go into the Atlantic ocean to drill those wells. Maybe sell into a relief rally next year.