Stockchase Opinions

Peter Hodson Points International Ltd. PTS-T HOLD May 26, 2008

Business is strong but stock is decimated. When AIC re-structured it, a bunch of stock hit the market at $1.65. Horrible transaction. A slowdown in their accelerating growth rate would cause him to sell.
$1.630

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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BUY
Huge amount of shares dumped on market. Revenues up over 100%. Close to profitability.
HOLD
Underwriting created some problems and there is still some overhang. No one is going to buy this stock until that is cleared up. Difficult to see an end to the problem. Expects a 40%-50% bounce once it is cleared up.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 15/07. Down 68%.) Secondary financing was done so badly it took all the wind out of the stock. New numbers have revenues up 200%. Half the market cap is cash and they don't need money.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 31/08. Down 83.8%.) Exchange points with airline systems. Had been growing exceptionally fast, great balance sheet, well run with great partners but had a poorly run secondary deal through their parent. Still have a great balance sheet and they are signing partners. Still a Partial Buy.
DON'T BUY
Q2 was a pretty good quarter but still suffering from hype 2-3 years ago when stock went up to $4. Bottom is now starting to emerge. Top line growth of only around 11%-13%. Not particularly cheap. For profitability need about $9 million yearly but only got about $500,000 last quarter.
HOLD
Good company. Starting to get some traction. It’s not that cheap when you look at the valuation. It’s not cheap enough for him to be drawn in bit if you have it, there is still some more upside on this one.
HOLD
He is short this stock but thinks he might be wrong. He is thinking it is more of a hold. He would wait until the market was at a bottom and then would cover his short. Earnings are starting to back fill. It is not a screaming buy, but doesn’t know if there is much downside.
BUY

Allows you to trade and buy loyalty points. The stock got ahead of itself and it collapsed. Now it is a bigger company and they have good partnerships with airlines and hotels. There are risks. They have a higher multiple, but looks pretty good on fundamentals. It is not as well known now as it was before it collapsed.

TOP PICK
They run loyalty programs (flyer points) for airlines and hotels. Solid organic growth rate that'll continue for years, and generates high free cash flow. A good takeout candidate. They can monetize non-core parts of their operation which will boost profits and free cash flow. (Analysts’ price target is $25.54)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 17/19, Down 35%) They are exposed to the aviation industry. The business has recovered nicely from the April lows and they are doing much better. He thinks it's not a time to sell the company. He trust the management team to navigate the environment. Once the aviation and hotel industry recover, they should see gains.